Holstein Kiel 2-1 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Holstein-Stadion plays host to Holstein Kiel versus SC Paderborn 07 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Holstein Kiel have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Holstein Kiel have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Holstein Kiel at Holstein-Stadion this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Holstein-Stadion this season.
SC Paderborn 07 (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.90. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. SC Paderborn 07 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, SC Paderborn 07 have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Holstein Kiel, 1.30 for SC Paderborn 07 — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Holstein Kiel register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant games, SC Paderborn 07 in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Holstein Kiel 1W, SC Paderborn 07 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 5.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Holstein Kiel goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
SC Paderborn 07 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 74% and SC Paderborn 07 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Holstein Kiel 71% | SC Paderborn 07 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.91 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 1.076 / defence 1.371 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.001 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.530 / away 1.335. Data: 38 Holstein Kiel games / 38 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 41% | Draw 21% | SC Paderborn 07 38%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 2.44 | Draw 4.76 | SC Paderborn 07 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 21% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 3.75. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.75 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (1.91 / 1.83) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Holstein Kiel as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 5.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 72% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Holstein Kiel 90% | SC Paderborn 07 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Sep 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 41% | Draw 21% | SC Paderborn 07 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 72% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.91 / SC Paderborn 07 1.83 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 1.076 / def 1.371 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.001 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.530 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.91
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.83
SC Paderborn 07 xG
72%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07?
Holstein Kiel 2 - 1 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 41% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 38% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Holstein Kiel and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (4 meetings): Holstein Kiel 1W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 2W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and SC Paderborn 07 in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Holstein Kiel's attack rating (1.08) and SC Paderborn 07's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.91 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SC Paderborn 07's attack (1.00x) against Holstein Kiel's defence (1.37x) — and the away total comes out at 1.83.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.9%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
41%
2.44
21%
4.66
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
8.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.91
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
3.75
1.83
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.66
21%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.40
28%
BTTS No
3.52
Clean Sheet
16%
6.25
15%
6.78
Win to Nil
7%
15.26
6%
18.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 8.3 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 4.6 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.4%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.91 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.83 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 3.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Holstein Kiel come into this having played 38 games, going 15W 10D 13L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.55 PPG from 38 outings (17W 8D 13L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Holstein Kiel against 1.55 for SC Paderborn 07. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Holstein Kiel's home form reads 7W 4D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.16 points per game from 19 outings (5W 7D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.89 scored and 1.39 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Early Season
SC Paderborn 07
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 games (1.45 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 17W 8D 13L in their last 38 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.32 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SC Paderborn 07 won 7-2 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Holstein Kiel have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SC Paderborn 07 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
3
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 4, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Holstein Kiel 2-0 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and SC Paderborn 07?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 84% for Holstein Kiel, 58% for SC Paderborn 07 — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 79% for Holstein Kiel and 68% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SC Paderborn 07 in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 84% of Holstein Kiel's games and 58% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Holstein Kiel vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 79% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 68% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do Holstein Kiel and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Holstein Kiel edge out SC Paderborn 07 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat SC Paderborn 07 2-1 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 5, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.91 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.83 xG, a combined 3.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. SC Paderborn 07 landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 1.08 / defence 1.37 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.00 / defence 1.16, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 41% | Draw 21% | SC Paderborn 07 38%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 71%, SC Paderborn 07 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.45 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Holstein Kiel win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.