SV Darmstadt 98 3-1 Energie Cottbus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 43%, yet in-form Energie Cottbus provide a compelling counter-argument — this SV Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 host Energie Cottbus at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. SV Darmstadt 98 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — SV Darmstadt 98 are significantly better at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor than their overall form suggests.
Energie Cottbus — All Games: 2W 2D 2L from 6 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.33 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.33 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.17 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 6 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Energie Cottbus have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Energie Cottbus away from home this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.33 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Energie Cottbus — 0.73 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.33 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
In-Play Profile
SV Darmstadt 98 in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Energie Cottbus in-play tendencies (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 50% versus Energie Cottbus 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SV Darmstadt 98 67% | Energie Cottbus 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.81 xG and Energie Cottbus 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.928 / defence 1.023 | Energie Cottbus attack 1.103 / defence 1.211. League average goals — home 1.614 / away 1.410. Energie Cottbus bring a strong defensive rating of 1.211 — this is suppressing SV Darmstadt 98's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 6 Energie Cottbus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 43% | Draw 22% | Energie Cottbus 34%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.33 | Draw 4.55 | Energie Cottbus 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 22% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.81 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Energie Cottbus (1.33 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates are neutral: SV Darmstadt 98 50% | Energie Cottbus 33%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 43% | Draw 22% | Energie Cottbus 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.81 / Energie Cottbus 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.928 / def 1.023 | Energie Cottbus attack 1.103 / def 1.211 | league avg home 1.614 / away 1.410 • Poisson stance: SV Darmstadt 98 (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Energie Cottbus xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus?
SV Darmstadt 98 3 - 1 Energie Cottbus.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 43% chance of winning, Energie Cottbus a 34% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making SV Darmstadt 98 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and Energie Cottbus will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Energie Cottbus?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Energie Cottbus in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. Energie Cottbus (all comps): 2W-2D-2L in 6 | 1.33 PPG | GF 2.33 / GA 2.17 | L5 L-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating (0.93) and Energie Cottbus's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Energie Cottbus's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Darmstadt 98 Win
43%
2.31
22%
4.45
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
3.41
1.59
Energie Cottbus xG
2.31
43%
Home win
4.45
22%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
20%
4.91
16%
6.13
Win to Nil
9%
11.32
6%
17.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and Energie Cottbus expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.59 for Energie Cottbus, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 6 outings, SV Darmstadt 98 have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 1W 1D 4L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Energie Cottbus's form line: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-L-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Energie Cottbus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Energie Cottbus are the form team by 0.66 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SV Darmstadt 98.
Venue Form
On home soil, SV Darmstadt 98 have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.67 PPG overall — SV Darmstadt 98 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Energie Cottbus have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 2.17 conceded per game recently; Energie Cottbus are on 2.33 scored and 2.17 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Energie Cottbus in 67%.
Last 6 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Early Season
Energie Cottbus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and Energie Cottbus in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 1W 1D 4L in their last 6 games (0.67 PPG), while Energie Cottbus have gone 2W 2D 2L in their last 6 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or Energie Cottbus away?
SV Darmstadt 98's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 1.33 PPG; Energie Cottbus away: 1.33 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
1 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
1
SV Darmstadt 98
0
Draws
0
Energie Cottbus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and Energie Cottbus?
From 1 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 1, Energie Cottbus have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and Energie Cottbus last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when SV Darmstadt 98 3-1 Energie Cottbus.
Who has won more matches between SV Darmstadt 98 and Energie Cottbus?
SV Darmstadt 98 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Energie Cottbus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 67%, Energie Cottbus 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for SV Darmstadt 98 and 100% for Energie Cottbus. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Energie Cottbus in 33%; SV Darmstadt 98 have failed to score in 33% of games; Energie Cottbus in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / Energie Cottbus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play Energie Cottbus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent matches and 33% of Energie Cottbus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs Energie Cottbus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of SV Darmstadt 98's matches and 100% of Energie Cottbus's.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and Energie Cottbus tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Energie Cottbus in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SV Darmstadt 98 cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Energie Cottbus.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat Energie Cottbus 3-1 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 7, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.81 xG and Energie Cottbus 1.59 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.93 / defence 1.02 against Energie Cottbus attack 1.10 / defence 1.21, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 43% | Draw 22% | Energie Cottbus 34%, with SV Darmstadt 98 to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 67%, Energie Cottbus 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Energie Cottbus's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Energie Cottbus arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.67. Form was overturned, with SV Darmstadt 98 winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm. Energie Cottbus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.