SV Darmstadt 98 1-1 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates SV Darmstadt 98 at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as SV Darmstadt 98 face Eintracht Braunschweig.

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Analysis & Preview

Eintracht Braunschweig travel to Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor to take on SV Darmstadt 98 in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 5). The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form Guide

SV Darmstadt 98 — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L, averaging 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.

SV Darmstadt 98's form when playing at home: 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 home games (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.80 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Eintracht Braunschweig stand at 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Eintracht Braunschweig away from home: 2W 1D 7L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SV Darmstadt 98 0.40 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, Eintracht Braunschweig 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Feb 2023, ended SV Darmstadt 98 2–1 Eintracht Braunschweig — a SV Darmstadt 98 win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

SV Darmstadt 98 in-play tendencies (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 75%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 50% of games.

Eintracht Braunschweig in-play tendencies (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 47% versus Eintracht Braunschweig 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 60% | Eintracht Braunschweig 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.70 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.703 / defence 1.105 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.811 / defence 1.565. League average goals — home 1.543 / away 1.361. SV Darmstadt 98's attack rating of 0.703 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.70. Eintracht Braunschweig's defence rating of 1.565 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing SV Darmstadt 98's projected output up. Data: built from SV Darmstadt 98's last 4 games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 38.

Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 47% | Draw 27% | Eintracht Braunschweig 26%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 2.13 | Draw 3.65 | Eintracht Braunschweig 3.88. SV Darmstadt 98 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Darmstadt 98 at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Darmstadt 98 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (SV Darmstadt 98's last 10 home games and Eintracht Braunschweig's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: SV Darmstadt 98 40% (last 10 home games) | Eintracht Braunschweig 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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