Eintracht Braunschweig 2-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours SpVgg Greuther Fürth (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Eintracht Braunschweig face SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Eintracht Braunschweig and SpVgg Greuther Fürth meet at Eintracht-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 21 September 2024 at 12:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Eintracht Braunschweig have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.80 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Eintracht Braunschweig have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Eintracht Braunschweig have posted 4W 2D 4L at Eintracht-Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Eintracht-Stadion. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Eintracht Braunschweig are significantly better at Eintracht-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W D D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, SpVgg Greuther Fürth are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Eintracht Braunschweig 0W, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2W, 2D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Eintracht Braunschweig goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Eintracht Braunschweig 46% versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Eintracht Braunschweig 56% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Eintracht Braunschweig 1.32 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.941 / defence 1.116 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.179 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.546 / away 1.406. Data: 39 Eintracht Braunschweig games / 39 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 25% | Draw 27% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 48%. Fair-value odds: Eintracht Braunschweig 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.08. SpVgg Greuther Fürth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.32 / 1.85) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 64% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Eintracht Braunschweig 30% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Eintracht-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Sep 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Eintracht Braunschweig 25% | Draw 27% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Eintracht Braunschweig 1.32 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.85 • Poisson strength factors: Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.941 / def 1.116 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.179 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.546 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Expected Goals
1.85
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 21 September 2024 at Eintracht-Stadion.
What was the final score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Eintracht Braunschweig 2 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Eintracht-Stadion.
What competition is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Eintracht Braunschweig a 25% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Eintracht Braunschweig and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (4 meetings): Eintracht Braunschweig 0W | Draws 2 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2W.
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Eintracht Braunschweig's attack at 0.94x the league average against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack (1.18x) against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.85.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
25%
3.96
27%
3.69
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
Total xG
3.17
1.85
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
3.96
25%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
16%
6.35
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
4%
25.14
13%
7.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.3 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Eintracht Braunschweig and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Eintracht Braunschweig and 1.85 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Eintracht Braunschweig come into this having played 39 games, going 11W 6D 22L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, SpVgg Greuther Fürth sit at 1.51 PPG from 39 outings (16W 11D 12L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Eintracht Braunschweig — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Eintracht Braunschweig's home form reads 7W 4D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have taken 1.05 points per game from 19 outings (5W 5D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.51 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Eintracht Braunschweig are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.54 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 39 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Eintracht Braunschweig
Early Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Eintracht Braunschweig and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 11W 6D 22L in their last 39 games (1.00 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 16W 11D 12L in their last 39 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Eintracht Braunschweig at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Eintracht Braunschweig's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Eintracht Braunschweig at home: 1.32 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Eintracht Braunschweig or SpVgg Greuther Fürth been keeping clean sheets recently?
Eintracht Braunschweig have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 3-0 on 23 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against SpVgg Greuther Fürth — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
3
Draws
3
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Eintracht Braunschweig and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 8 meetings on record, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Eintracht Braunschweig and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-0 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Who has won more matches between Eintracht Braunschweig and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Eintracht Braunschweig 47%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Eintracht Braunschweig) and 47% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth).
On the defensive side: Eintracht Braunschweig keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Eintracht Braunschweig have failed to score in 26% of games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Eintracht Braunschweig home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Eintracht Braunschweig play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent matches and 42% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Eintracht Braunschweig vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Eintracht Braunschweig's recent games and 47% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Eintracht Braunschweig and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Eintracht Braunschweig have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Eintracht Braunschweig cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-0 at Eintracht-Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Eintracht Braunschweig 1.32 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.85 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.94 / defence 1.12 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.18 / defence 0.91, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Eintracht Braunschweig 25% | Draw 27% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 48%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Eintracht Braunschweig win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Eintracht Braunschweig 56%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SpVgg Greuther Fürth arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Eintracht Braunschweig winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.