SV Darmstadt 98 5-1 1. FC Köln – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates 1. FC Köln at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SV Darmstadt 98 host 1. FC Köln at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 October 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L D W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Darmstadt 98, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Darmstadt 98's home record at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor: 0W 2D 8L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
1. FC Köln — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Köln, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Köln's away record: 1W 7D 2L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. 1. FC Köln's 1.50 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of SV Darmstadt 98's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for SV Darmstadt 98, 1 for 1. FC Köln and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with SV Darmstadt 98 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
SV Darmstadt 98 trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 45% of games.
1. FC Köln trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Darmstadt 98 52% versus 1. FC Köln 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Darmstadt 98 62% | 1. FC Köln 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Darmstadt 98 1.22 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.693 / defence 1.080 | 1. FC Köln attack 1.074 / defence 1.117. League average goals — home 1.571 / away 1.513. SV Darmstadt 98's attack strength of 0.693 is below the league average — the 1.22 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 8 SV Darmstadt 98 games / 8 1. FC Köln games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 24% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Köln 48%. Fair-value odds: SV Darmstadt 98 4.17 | Draw 3.57 | 1. FC Köln 2.08. 1. FC Köln hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates 1. FC Köln as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Köln offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: SV Darmstadt 98 50% | 1. FC Köln 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Darmstadt 98 24% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Köln 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG SV Darmstadt 98 1.22 / 1. FC Köln 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.693 / def 1.080 | 1. FC Köln attack 1.074 / def 1.117 | league avg home 1.571 / away 1.513 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Köln (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Expected Goals
1.75
1. FC Köln xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln kick off?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What was the final score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln?
SV Darmstadt 98 5 - 1 1. FC Köln.
Where is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln being played?
The match is being played at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor.
What competition is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln part of?
SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln?
Our statistical model gives SV Darmstadt 98 a 24% chance of winning, 1. FC Köln a 48% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Köln the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Köln will score (BTTS).
Will SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Köln?
Record (2 meetings): SV Darmstadt 98 1W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Köln 1W.
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Köln in?
SV Darmstadt 98 (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-D-W-L-D. 1. FC Köln (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates SV Darmstadt 98's attack at 0.69x the league average against 1. FC Köln's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, 1. FC Köln's attack versus SV Darmstadt 98's defence, projects 1.75 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Köln Win
24%
4.13
28%
3.57
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
SV Darmstadt 98 xG
Total xG
2.97
1.75
1. FC Köln xG
4.13
24%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
17%
5.78
30%
3.37
Win to Nil
4%
23.84
14%
7.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 9.0 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Köln expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for SV Darmstadt 98 and 1.75 for 1. FC Köln, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SV Darmstadt 98 come into this having played 42 games, going 4W 11D 27L for 0.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-D. The sample for SV Darmstadt 98 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Köln sit at 0.93 PPG from 42 outings (8W 15D 19L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Köln is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: SV Darmstadt 98 on 0.55 PPG, 1. FC Köln on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
SV Darmstadt 98's home form reads 1W 5D 14L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.40 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Köln have taken 0.80 points per game from 20 outings (2W 10D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Köln come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SV Darmstadt 98 are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Köln are on 1.14 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 42 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Darmstadt 98
Blended
1. FC Köln
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Köln in coming into this match?
SV Darmstadt 98 have gone 4W 11D 27L in their last 42 games (0.55 PPG), while 1. FC Köln have gone 8W 15D 19L in their last 42 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Darmstadt 98 at home or 1. FC Köln away?
1. FC Köln's away record (0.80 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Darmstadt 98 at home: 0.40 PPG; 1. FC Köln away: 0.80 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Bundesliga, 2. Bundesliga all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Oct 2024, when SV Darmstadt 98 won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SV Darmstadt 98's record when hosting 1. FC Köln specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
SV Darmstadt 98
0
Draws
2
1. FC Köln
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Köln?
From 4 meetings on record, SV Darmstadt 98 have won 2, 1. FC Köln have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Köln last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when 1. FC Köln 2-1 SV Darmstadt 98.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SV Darmstadt 98 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
1. FC Köln are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SV Darmstadt 98 50%, 1. FC Köln 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (SV Darmstadt 98) and 40% (1. FC Köln).
On the defensive side: SV Darmstadt 98 have failed to score in 50% of games; 1. FC Köln in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Darmstadt 98 home games / 1. FC Köln away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Darmstadt 98 play 1. FC Köln?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of SV Darmstadt 98's games and 65% of 1. FC Köln's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Darmstadt 98 vs 1. FC Köln usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of SV Darmstadt 98's recent games and 40% of 1. FC Köln's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SV Darmstadt 98 and 1. FC Köln tend to score early?
SV Darmstadt 98 have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, 1. FC Köln in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SV Darmstadt 98 run riot with a 5-1 hammering of 1. FC Köln.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Darmstadt 98 beat 1. FC Köln 5-1 at Merck-Stadion am Böllenfalltor, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Darmstadt 98 1.22 xG and 1. FC Köln 1.75 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. SV Darmstadt 98 beat their projection by 3.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Darmstadt 98 attack 0.69 / defence 1.08 against 1. FC Köln attack 1.07 / defence 1.12, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Darmstadt 98 24% | Draw 28% | 1. FC Köln 48%, with 1. FC Köln to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a SV Darmstadt 98 win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Darmstadt 98 62%, 1. FC Köln 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Darmstadt 98's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Köln's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SV Darmstadt 98 0.55 PPG, 1. FC Köln 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Darmstadt 98 win broke the near-deadlock. SV Darmstadt 98 (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.30 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Köln (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.