SSV Ulm 1846 0-2 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SC Paderborn 07 at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Ulm 1846 vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 21 as SSV Ulm 1846 welcome SC Paderborn 07 to Donaustadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 February 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
SSV Ulm 1846 — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SSV Ulm 1846, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SSV Ulm 1846 have posted 2W 3D 4L at Donaustadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 78% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for SC Paderborn 07, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 4W 5D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SSV Ulm 1846 at 0.90 PPG versus SC Paderborn 07's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 78% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 0, SC Paderborn 07 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 0.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
SSV Ulm 1846 trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
SC Paderborn 07 trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SSV Ulm 1846 65% and SC Paderborn 07 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Ulm 1846 50% | SC Paderborn 07 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Ulm 1846 1.23 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.956 / defence 0.952 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.967 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.518 / away 1.541. Data: 20 SSV Ulm 1846 games / 54 SC Paderborn 07 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 32% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 41%. Fair-value odds: SSV Ulm 1846 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | SC Paderborn 07 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SC Paderborn 07 at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SC Paderborn 07 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SSV Ulm 1846 78% | SC Paderborn 07 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Ulm 1846 vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Donaustadion • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 32% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG SSV Ulm 1846 1.23 / SC Paderborn 07 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.956 / def 0.952 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.967 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.518 / away 1.541 • Poisson stance: SC Paderborn 07 (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
Expected Goals
1.42
SC Paderborn 07 xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Ulm 1846 vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
SSV Ulm 1846 vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Donaustadion.
What was the final score in SSV Ulm 1846 vs SC Paderborn 07?
SSV Ulm 1846 0 - 2 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is SSV Ulm 1846 vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Donaustadion.
What competition is SSV Ulm 1846 vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
SSV Ulm 1846 vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Ulm 1846 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives SSV Ulm 1846 a 32% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making SC Paderborn 07 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Ulm 1846 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SSV Ulm 1846 and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Ulm 1846 vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Ulm 1846 and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (1 meetings): SSV Ulm 1846 0W | Draws 1 | SC Paderborn 07 0W.
What form are SSV Ulm 1846 and SC Paderborn 07 in?
SSV Ulm 1846 (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-L. SC Paderborn 07 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
SSV Ulm 1846's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus SSV Ulm 1846's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SC Paderborn 07 Win
32%
3.14
28%
3.63
41%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
Total xG
2.65
1.42
SC Paderborn 07 xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
2.47
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
29%
3.43
Win to Nil
8%
12.97
12%
8.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 10.0 | 7.1 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.1 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Ulm 1846 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are SSV Ulm 1846 and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for SSV Ulm 1846 and 1.42 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Ulm 1846 vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SSV Ulm 1846 come into this having played 20 games, going 3W 8D 9L for 0.85 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-L. The sample for SSV Ulm 1846 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SC Paderborn 07 sit at 1.55 PPG from 20 outings (8W 7D 5L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for SC Paderborn 07 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
SC Paderborn 07 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of SSV Ulm 1846 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
SSV Ulm 1846's home form reads 2W 3D 4L across 9 games on their own ground, a 1.00 PPG return.
Away from home, SC Paderborn 07 have taken 1.56 points per game from 9 outings (3W 5D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SC Paderborn 07 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SSV Ulm 1846 are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SSV Ulm 1846 have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; SC Paderborn 07 in 75%.
Last 20 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Ulm 1846
Blended
SC Paderborn 07
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Ulm 1846 and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 3W 8D 9L in their last 20 games (0.85 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 8W 7D 5L in their last 20 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Ulm 1846 at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SC Paderborn 07's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Ulm 1846 at home: 1.00 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.56 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SSV Ulm 1846 and SC Paderborn 07 runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SSV Ulm 1846
1
Draws
1
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Ulm 1846 and SC Paderborn 07?
From 2 meetings on record, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 0, SC Paderborn 07 have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SSV Ulm 1846 and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when SSV Ulm 1846 0-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SSV Ulm 1846 and SC Paderborn 07?
SC Paderborn 07 have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SSV Ulm 1846 see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
SC Paderborn 07 see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SSV Ulm 1846 at 78%, SC Paderborn 07 at 78%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (SSV Ulm 1846) and 56% (SC Paderborn 07). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Ulm 1846 home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Ulm 1846 play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of SSV Ulm 1846's games and 78% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SSV Ulm 1846 vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of SSV Ulm 1846's matches and 56% of SC Paderborn 07's.
SC Paderborn 07 cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over SSV Ulm 1846.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SC Paderborn 07 beat SSV Ulm 1846 0-2 at Donaustadion, Regular Season - 21, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Ulm 1846 1.23 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.42 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. SSV Ulm 1846 fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.97 / defence 0.85, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Ulm 1846 32% | Draw 28% | SC Paderborn 07 41%, with SC Paderborn 07 to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Ulm 1846 50%, SC Paderborn 07 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.85. That form edge translated into the three points. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.