SSV Ulm 1846 1-2 Hannover 96 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Hannover 96 at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hannover 96 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Donaustadion plays host to SSV Ulm 1846 versus Hannover 96 in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form
SSV Ulm 1846 (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, SSV Ulm 1846 have posted 3W 4D 3L at Donaustadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Hannover 96 have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Hannover 96 have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for SSV Ulm 1846 against 1.30 for Hannover 96. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — SSV Ulm 1846 lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 2–3 with Hannover 96 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
SSV Ulm 1846 — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Hannover 96 — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Ulm 1846 55% versus Hannover 96 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Ulm 1846 42% | Hannover 96 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Ulm 1846 1.16 xG and Hannover 96 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.848 / defence 1.016 | Hannover 96 attack 0.890 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.292. Data: 31 SSV Ulm 1846 games / 65 Hannover 96 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 34% | Draw 31% | Hannover 96 35%. Fair-value odds: SSV Ulm 1846 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | Hannover 96 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hannover 96 are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Hannover 96 if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: SSV Ulm 1846 50% | Hannover 96 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hannover 96 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Donaustadion • Kick-off: Saturday 3 May 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Ulm 1846 34% | Draw 31% | Hannover 96 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG SSV Ulm 1846 1.16 / Hannover 96 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.848 / def 1.016 | Hannover 96 attack 0.890 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Hannover 96 (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Hannover 96 xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hannover 96 kick off?
SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hannover 96 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 3 May 2025 at Donaustadion.
What was the final score in SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hannover 96?
SSV Ulm 1846 1 - 2 Hannover 96.
Where is SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hannover 96 being played?
The match is being played at Donaustadion.
What competition is SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hannover 96 part of?
SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hannover 96 is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hannover 96?
Our statistical model gives SSV Ulm 1846 a 34% chance of winning, Hannover 96 a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Hannover 96 the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hannover 96?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both SSV Ulm 1846 and Hannover 96 will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hannover 96 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Ulm 1846 and Hannover 96?
Record (1 meetings): SSV Ulm 1846 0W | Draws 0 | Hannover 96 1W.
What form are SSV Ulm 1846 and Hannover 96 in?
SSV Ulm 1846 (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Hannover 96 (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates SSV Ulm 1846's attack at 0.85x the league average against Hannover 96's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hannover 96's attack (0.89x) against SSV Ulm 1846's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 31/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hannover 96 Win
34%
2.91
31%
3.24
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
SSV Ulm 1846 xG
Total xG
2.33
1.17
Hannover 96 xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
11%
9.38
11%
9.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 11.4 | 6.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.2 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hannover 96?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are SSV Ulm 1846 and Hannover 96 expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for SSV Ulm 1846 and 1.17 for Hannover 96, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hannover 96?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 31 outings, SSV Ulm 1846 have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 6W 11D 14L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Hannover 96's form line: 12W 10D 9L from 31 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Hannover 96 are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SSV Ulm 1846.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, SSV Ulm 1846 have posted 1.07 PPG from 15 outings (4W 4D 7L).
On the road, Hannover 96 have gone 4W 4D 7L from 15 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.48 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hannover 96's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SSV Ulm 1846 are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Hannover 96 are on 1.19 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Hannover 96 in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Ulm 1846
Current Season
Hannover 96
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Ulm 1846 and Hannover 96 in coming into this match?
SSV Ulm 1846 have gone 6W 11D 14L in their last 31 games (0.94 PPG), while Hannover 96 have gone 12W 10D 9L in their last 31 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Ulm 1846 at home or Hannover 96 away?
SSV Ulm 1846's home record (1.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Ulm 1846 at home: 1.07 PPG; Hannover 96 away: 1.07 PPG.
Have SSV Ulm 1846 or Hannover 96 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SSV Ulm 1846 have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Hannover 96 in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
SSV Ulm 1846
0
Draws
2
Hannover 96
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Ulm 1846 and Hannover 96?
From 2 meetings on record, SSV Ulm 1846 have won 0, Hannover 96 have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SSV Ulm 1846 and Hannover 96 last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when SSV Ulm 1846 1-2 Hannover 96.
Who has won more matches between SSV Ulm 1846 and Hannover 96?
Hannover 96 have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SSV Ulm 1846 see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Hannover 96 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Ulm 1846 60%, Hannover 96 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (SSV Ulm 1846) and 53% (Hannover 96).
On the defensive side: SSV Ulm 1846 have failed to score in 33% of games; Hannover 96 in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Ulm 1846 home games / Hannover 96 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Ulm 1846 play Hannover 96?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of SSV Ulm 1846's recent matches and 47% of Hannover 96's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Ulm 1846 vs Hannover 96 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of SSV Ulm 1846's recent games and 53% of Hannover 96's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SSV Ulm 1846 and Hannover 96 tend to score early?
SSV Ulm 1846 have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Hannover 96 in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Hannover 96 edge out SSV Ulm 1846 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hannover 96 beat SSV Ulm 1846 1-2 at Donaustadion, Regular Season - 32, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Ulm 1846 1.16 xG and Hannover 96 1.17 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hannover 96 outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Ulm 1846 attack 0.85 / defence 1.02 against Hannover 96 attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 31/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Ulm 1846 34% | Draw 31% | Hannover 96 35%, with Hannover 96 to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Ulm 1846 42%, Hannover 96 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Ulm 1846's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Hannover 96's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hannover 96 arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.94. Form held, and they took the win. SSV Ulm 1846 (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hannover 96 (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.