SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5-0 SC Paderborn 07 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
SpVgg Greuther Fürth host SC Paderborn 07 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 30 July 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. SpVgg Greuther Fürth haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SC Paderborn 07 have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SC Paderborn 07 haven't played a 2. Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SC Paderborn 07 have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.40 PPG, SC Paderborn 07 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, SC Paderborn 07 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Apr 2023, ended 2–3 with SC Paderborn 07 winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
SC Paderborn 07 in-play and half-time data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 71% and SC Paderborn 07 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62% | SC Paderborn 07 71%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.70 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.094 / defence 0.905 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.985 / defence 0.978. League average goals — home 1.591 / away 1.429. Data: 34 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 34 SC Paderborn 07 games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 47% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 29%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | SC Paderborn 07 3.45. SpVgg Greuther Fürth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.98 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 40% | SC Paderborn 07 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (34 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Jul 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 47% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.70 / SC Paderborn 07 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.094 / def 0.905 | SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.985 / def 0.978 | league avg home 1.591 / away 1.429 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.27
SC Paderborn 07 xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 30 July 2023 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 5 - 0 SC Paderborn 07.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 47% chance of winning, SC Paderborn 07 a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07 will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07?
Record (2 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W | Draws 0 | SC Paderborn 07 1W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07 in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against SC Paderborn 07's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.70. The same calculation in reverse, SC Paderborn 07's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
47%
2.11
24%
4.20
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
2.98
1.27
SC Paderborn 07 xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
13%
7.55
5%
19.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 9.4 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07 expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.27 for SC Paderborn 07, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's recent record stands at 10W 11D 13L from 34 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-D-D-L-W in the last five. SpVgg Greuther Fürth haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
SC Paderborn 07, meanwhile, have gone 16W 7D 11L across 34 games — 1.62 PPG, with W-D-W-D-L in their last five. SC Paderborn 07 haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
The points-per-game comparison favours SC Paderborn 07 by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SpVgg Greuther Fürth heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have managed 8W 7D 2L from 17 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.21 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SC Paderborn 07's away record stands at 4W 7D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.62 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SC Paderborn 07's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; SC Paderborn 07 are on 2.00 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Pre-Season
SC Paderborn 07
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07 in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 10W 11D 13L in their last 34 games (1.21 PPG), while SC Paderborn 07 have gone 16W 7D 11L in their last 34 (1.62 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or SC Paderborn 07 away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.82 PPG; SC Paderborn 07 away: 1.12 PPG.
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or SC Paderborn 07 been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, SC Paderborn 07 in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
SC Paderborn 07 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Jul 2023, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting SC Paderborn 07 specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
3
SC Paderborn 07
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07?
From 8 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 4, SC Paderborn 07 have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07 last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0-2 SC Paderborn 07.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
SC Paderborn 07 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 65%, SC Paderborn 07 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 65% for SC Paderborn 07. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / SC Paderborn 07 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play SC Paderborn 07?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 59% of SC Paderborn 07's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs SC Paderborn 07 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 65% of SC Paderborn 07's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and SC Paderborn 07 tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, SC Paderborn 07 in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant SpVgg Greuther Fürth run riot with a 5-0 hammering of SC Paderborn 07.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat SC Paderborn 07 5-0 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 1, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.70 xG and SC Paderborn 07 1.27 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. SpVgg Greuther Fürth beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SC Paderborn 07 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 1.09 / defence 0.91 against SC Paderborn 07 attack 0.98 / defence 0.98, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 47% | Draw 24% | SC Paderborn 07 29%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62%, SC Paderborn 07 71%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
SC Paderborn 07's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, SC Paderborn 07 arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.65 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line. SC Paderborn 07 (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.