Holstein Kiel 2-1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Holstein Kiel at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees SpVgg Greuther Fürth travel to Holstein-Stadion to take on Holstein Kiel. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 August 2023, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Holstein Kiel stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Holstein Kiel have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Holstein-Stadion, Holstein Kiel have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. SpVgg Greuther Fürth have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's away record: 1W 2D 7L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Holstein Kiel) versus 1.40 (SpVgg Greuther Fürth). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Holstein Kiel, 0 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.5 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Jan 2023, ended 2–1 with Holstein Kiel winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Holstein Kiel in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 94% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 88% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Holstein Kiel 74% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Holstein Kiel 71% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Holstein Kiel 1.64 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Holstein Kiel attack 1.039 / defence 1.175 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.933 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.349. Data: 35 Holstein Kiel games / 35 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 42% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 35%. Fair-value odds: Holstein Kiel 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.48) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Holstein Kiel at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Holstein Kiel offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Holstein Kiel 90% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Holstein-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Aug 2023, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Holstein Kiel 42% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Holstein Kiel 1.64 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.48 • Poisson strength factors: Holstein Kiel attack 1.039 / def 1.175 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.933 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Holstein Kiel (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Holstein Kiel xG
Expected Goals
1.48
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 5 August 2023 at Holstein-Stadion.
What was the final score in Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Holstein Kiel 2 - 1 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Holstein-Stadion.
What competition is Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Holstein Kiel a 42% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Holstein Kiel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (2 meetings): Holstein Kiel 1W | Draws 1 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 0W.
What form are Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Holstein Kiel (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Holstein Kiel's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus Holstein Kiel's defence, projects 1.48 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Holstein Kiel Win
42%
2.40
24%
4.22
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Holstein Kiel xG
Total xG
3.12
1.48
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.40
42%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
23%
4.39
19%
5.18
Win to Nil
10%
10.52
7%
14.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 10.7 | 7.9 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Holstein Kiel and 1.48 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 35 outings, Holstein Kiel have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 13W 10D 12L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Holstein Kiel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 11W 11D 13L from 35 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Holstein Kiel on 1.40 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Holstein Kiel have posted 1.29 PPG from 17 outings (6W 4D 7L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 2W 4D 11L from 17 away games — 0.59 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.26 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Holstein Kiel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Holstein Kiel are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.49 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Holstein Kiel have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games; SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 69%.
Last 35 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Holstein Kiel
Early Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Holstein Kiel have gone 13W 10D 12L in their last 35 games (1.40 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 11W 11D 13L in their last 35 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Holstein Kiel at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Holstein Kiel's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Holstein Kiel at home: 1.29 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.59 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Holstein Kiel's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Holstein Kiel
1
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 6 meetings on record, Holstein Kiel have won 3, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Holstein Kiel 1-2 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Holstein Kiel have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Holstein Kiel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 94% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Holstein Kiel at 82%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 76% for Holstein Kiel and 65% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Holstein Kiel home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Holstein Kiel play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 82% of Holstein Kiel's games and 76% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Holstein Kiel vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 76% of Holstein Kiel's matches and 65% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's.
Do Holstein Kiel and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Holstein Kiel have had a goal before half-time in 94% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Holstein Kiel edge out SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Holstein Kiel beat SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2-1 at Holstein-Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Holstein Kiel 1.64 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.48 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Holstein Kiel attack 1.04 / defence 1.18 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.93 / defence 1.03, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Holstein Kiel 42% | Draw 24% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 35%, with Holstein Kiel to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Holstein Kiel 71%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Holstein Kiel's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Holstein Kiel 1.40 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Holstein Kiel win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.