SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1-1 Hamburger SV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 27 as SpVgg Greuther Fürth welcome Hamburger SV to Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 March 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are significantly better at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer than their overall form suggests.
Hamburger SV — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Hamburger SV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, Hamburger SV have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Hamburger SV's 1.60 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. SpVgg Greuther Fürth register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Hamburger SV in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 1, Hamburger SV 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 0–2 with Hamburger SV winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
SpVgg Greuther Fürth in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 77% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
Hamburger SV in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 62% and Hamburger SV 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58% | Hamburger SV 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.55 xG and Hamburger SV 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.988 / defence 1.084 | Hamburger SV attack 1.038 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.375. Data: 60 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games / 60 Hamburger SV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% | Draw 24% | Hamburger SV 38%. Fair-value odds: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.63 | Draw 4.17 | Hamburger SV 2.63. The draw (24%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.09. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.09 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 24% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 38% and away win at 38% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 3.09 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% | Hamburger SV 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% | Draw 24% | Hamburger SV 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.55 / Hamburger SV 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.988 / def 1.084 | Hamburger SV attack 1.038 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: Draw (24%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Hamburger SV xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV kick off?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What was the final score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1 - 1 Hamburger SV.
Where is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer.
What competition is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV part of?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV?
Our statistical model gives SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 38% chance of winning, Hamburger SV a 38% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV will score (BTTS).
Will SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV?
Record (3 meetings): SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1W | Draws 0 | Hamburger SV 2W.
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV in?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Hamburger SV (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack rating (0.99) and Hamburger SV's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Hamburger SV's attack versus SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
38%
2.63
24%
4.19
38%
2.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
Total xG
3.09
1.55
Hamburger SV xG
2.63
38%
Home win
4.19
24%
Draw
2.63
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
21%
4.70
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
8%
12.36
8%
12.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.8 | 8.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 1.55 for Hamburger SV, a combined total of 3.09.
How confident is the prediction model for SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 21W 16D 23L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for SpVgg Greuther Fürth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hamburger SV's form line: 32W 11D 17L from 60 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-W. The sample for Hamburger SV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Hamburger SV are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 1.90 PPG from 30 outings (16W 9D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — SpVgg Greuther Fürth are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Hamburger SV have gone 12W 8D 10L from 30 away games — 1.47 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SpVgg Greuther Fürth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Hamburger SV are on 1.98 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: SpVgg Greuther Fürth have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Hamburger SV in 60%.
Last 60 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Blended
Hamburger SV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV in coming into this match?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 21W 16D 23L in their last 60 games (1.32 PPG), while Hamburger SV have gone 32W 11D 17L in their last 60 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home or Hamburger SV away?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's home record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SpVgg Greuther Fürth at home: 1.90 PPG; Hamburger SV away: 1.47 PPG.
Have SpVgg Greuther Fürth or Hamburger SV been keeping clean sheets recently?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Hamburger SV in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Dec 2024, when Hamburger SV won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's record when hosting Hamburger SV specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
1
Draws
3
Hamburger SV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV?
From 6 meetings on record, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, Hamburger SV have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when SpVgg Greuther Fürth 3-2 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60%, Hamburger SV 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for SpVgg Greuther Fürth and 60% for Hamburger SV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SpVgg Greuther Fürth home games / Hamburger SV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SpVgg Greuther Fürth play Hamburger SV?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's games and 60% of Hamburger SV's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs Hamburger SV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's matches and 60% of Hamburger SV's.
Do SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV tend to score early?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Hamburger SV in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Sportpark Ronhof Thomas Sommer, Regular Season - 27, as SpVgg Greuther Fürth and Hamburger SV drew 1-1 in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.55 xG and Hamburger SV 1.55 xG, a combined 3.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.99 / defence 1.08 against Hamburger SV attack 1.04 / defence 0.98, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SpVgg Greuther Fürth 38% | Draw 24% | Hamburger SV 38%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 38%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58%, Hamburger SV 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Hamburger SV's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.