SV Wehen 0-1 VfL Osnabrück – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SV Wehen at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a 2. Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 27 as SV Wehen welcome VfL Osnabrück to BRITA-Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 31 March 2024 at 12:30 UTC.
Form Guide
SV Wehen — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for SV Wehen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
SV Wehen at BRITA-Arena this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, VfL Osnabrück have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for VfL Osnabrück, so this record blends games from this season and last.
VfL Osnabrück away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — SV Wehen at 1.00 PPG versus VfL Osnabrück's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, SV Wehen have won 1, VfL Osnabrück 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Oct 2023, ended 2–0 with SV Wehen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
SV Wehen in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
VfL Osnabrück in-play and half-time data (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SV Wehen 58% versus VfL Osnabrück 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SV Wehen 42% | VfL Osnabrück 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SV Wehen 1.66 xG and VfL Osnabrück 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SV Wehen attack 0.793 / defence 1.069 | VfL Osnabrück attack 0.835 / defence 1.303. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.375. SV Wehen's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.66 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. VfL Osnabrück bring a strong defensive rating of 1.303 — this is suppressing SV Wehen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 26 SV Wehen games / 26 VfL Osnabrück games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SV Wehen 47% | Draw 24% | VfL Osnabrück 28%. Fair-value odds: SV Wehen 2.13 | Draw 4.17 | VfL Osnabrück 3.57. SV Wehen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is SV Wehen at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SV Wehen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SV Wehen 80% | VfL Osnabrück 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: BRITA-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Mar 2024, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SV Wehen 47% | Draw 24% | VfL Osnabrück 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 57% | xG SV Wehen 1.66 / VfL Osnabrück 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: SV Wehen attack 0.793 / def 1.069 | VfL Osnabrück attack 0.835 / def 1.303 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.375 • Poisson stance: SV Wehen (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
SV Wehen xG
Expected Goals
1.23
VfL Osnabrück xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück kick off?
SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 31 March 2024 at BRITA-Arena.
What was the final score in SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück?
SV Wehen 0 - 1 VfL Osnabrück.
Where is SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück being played?
The match is being played at BRITA-Arena.
What competition is SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück part of?
SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück?
Our statistical model gives SV Wehen a 47% chance of winning, VfL Osnabrück a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SV Wehen the favourite.
Will both teams score in SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SV Wehen and VfL Osnabrück will score (BTTS).
Will SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and VfL Osnabrück?
Record (1 meetings): SV Wehen 1W | Draws 0 | VfL Osnabrück 0W.
What form are SV Wehen and VfL Osnabrück in?
SV Wehen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. VfL Osnabrück (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SV Wehen's attack at 0.79x the league average against VfL Osnabrück's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, VfL Osnabrück's attack versus SV Wehen's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SV Wehen Win
47%
2.11
24%
4.13
28%
3.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
SV Wehen xG
Total xG
2.88
1.23
VfL Osnabrück xG
2.11
47%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.53
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
5%
18.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 6.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.4 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.4 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are SV Wehen and VfL Osnabrück expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for SV Wehen and 1.23 for VfL Osnabrück, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, SV Wehen have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 8W 7D 11L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for SV Wehen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
VfL Osnabrück's form line: 3W 9D 14L from 26 games, 0.69 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-L. The sample for VfL Osnabrück is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, SV Wehen are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against VfL Osnabrück.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SV Wehen have posted 1.42 PPG from 12 outings (4W 5D 3L).
On the road, VfL Osnabrück have gone 1W 3D 8L from 12 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, SV Wehen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SV Wehen are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; VfL Osnabrück are on 0.92 scored and 2.04 conceded.
Last 26 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SV Wehen
Blended
VfL Osnabrück
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SV Wehen and VfL Osnabrück in coming into this match?
SV Wehen have gone 8W 7D 11L in their last 26 games (1.19 PPG), while VfL Osnabrück have gone 3W 9D 14L in their last 26 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SV Wehen at home or VfL Osnabrück away?
SV Wehen's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SV Wehen at home: 1.42 PPG; VfL Osnabrück away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SV Wehen and VfL Osnabrück runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 31 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
SV Wehen
0
Draws
1
VfL Osnabrück
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SV Wehen and VfL Osnabrück?
From 2 meetings on record, SV Wehen have won 1, VfL Osnabrück have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did SV Wehen and VfL Osnabrück last play each other?
They last met on 31 March 2024, when SV Wehen 0-1 VfL Osnabrück.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SV Wehen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
VfL Osnabrück are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — SV Wehen at 75%, VfL Osnabrück at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (SV Wehen) and 83% (VfL Osnabrück). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: VfL Osnabrück in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SV Wehen home games / VfL Osnabrück away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SV Wehen play VfL Osnabrück?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of SV Wehen's games and 67% of VfL Osnabrück's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SV Wehen vs VfL Osnabrück usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 33% of SV Wehen's matches and 83% of VfL Osnabrück's.
Do SV Wehen and VfL Osnabrück tend to score early?
SV Wehen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, VfL Osnabrück in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as VfL Osnabrück defy the odds to beat SV Wehen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
VfL Osnabrück beat SV Wehen 0-1 at BRITA-Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SV Wehen 1.66 xG and VfL Osnabrück 1.23 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. SV Wehen fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SV Wehen attack 0.79 / defence 1.07 against VfL Osnabrück attack 0.83 / defence 1.30, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SV Wehen 47% | Draw 24% | VfL Osnabrück 28%, with SV Wehen to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual VfL Osnabrück win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SV Wehen 42%, VfL Osnabrück 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SV Wehen's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
VfL Osnabrück's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, SV Wehen arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.69. Form was overturned, with VfL Osnabrück winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. SV Wehen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. VfL Osnabrück (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.67 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.