Preußen Münster 0-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Preußen Münster vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Preußen Münster host SpVgg Greuther Fürth at Preussenstadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 11 April 2026 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Preußen Münster — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Preußen Münster's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Preussenstadion this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have posted 2W 1D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. SpVgg Greuther Fürth's 1.40 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Preußen Münster's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Preußen Münster have won 1, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Nov 2025, ended 0–1 with SpVgg Greuther Fürth winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Preußen Münster trading profile (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
SpVgg Greuther Fürth trading profile (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Preußen Münster 63% and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Preußen Münster 52% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Preußen Münster 1.48 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Preußen Münster attack 0.823 / defence 1.199 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.971 / defence 1.141. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.306. Data: 62 Preußen Münster games / 62 SpVgg Greuther Fürth games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Preußen Münster 36% | Draw 27% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 37%. Fair-value odds: Preußen Münster 2.78 | Draw 3.70 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SpVgg Greuther Fürth as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SpVgg Greuther Fürth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.00 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Preußen Münster 80% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Preußen Münster vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Preussenstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Apr 2026, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Preußen Münster 36% | Draw 27% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Preußen Münster 1.48 / SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Preußen Münster attack 0.823 / def 1.199 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.971 / def 1.141 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.306 • Poisson stance: SpVgg Greuther Fürth (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Preußen Münster xG
Expected Goals
1.52
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Preußen Münster vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kick off?
Preußen Münster vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 11 April 2026 at Preussenstadion.
What was the final score in Preußen Münster vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Preußen Münster 0 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Where is Preußen Münster vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth being played?
The match is being played at Preussenstadion.
What competition is Preußen Münster vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth part of?
Preußen Münster vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Preußen Münster vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our statistical model gives Preußen Münster a 36% chance of winning, SpVgg Greuther Fürth a 37% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making SpVgg Greuther Fürth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Preußen Münster vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Preußen Münster and SpVgg Greuther Fürth will score (BTTS).
Will Preußen Münster vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Record (3 meetings): Preußen Münster 1W | Draws 0 | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 2W.
What form are Preußen Münster and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in?
Preußen Münster (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-D. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Preußen Münster's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against SpVgg Greuther Fürth's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. The same calculation in reverse, SpVgg Greuther Fürth's attack versus Preußen Münster's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SpVgg Greuther Fürth Win
36%
2.80
27%
3.72
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Preußen Münster xG
Total xG
3.00
1.52
SpVgg Greuther Fürth xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
22%
4.58
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
8%
12.83
9%
11.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 7.6 | 5.7 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.2 | 8.5 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Preußen Münster vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Preußen Münster and SpVgg Greuther Fürth expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Preußen Münster and 1.52 for SpVgg Greuther Fürth, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Preußen Münster vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 62 outings, Preußen Münster have picked up 1.02 PPG on a 14W 21D 27L record — W-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's form line: 18W 14D 30L from 62 games, 1.10 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Preußen Münster on 1.02 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Preußen Münster have posted 1.10 PPG from 31 outings (7W 13D 11L).
On the road, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 8W 5D 18L from 31 away games — 0.94 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Preußen Münster are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; SpVgg Greuther Fürth are on 1.37 scored and 1.94 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Preußen Münster have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 62 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Preußen Münster
Current Season
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Preußen Münster and SpVgg Greuther Fürth in coming into this match?
Preußen Münster have gone 14W 21D 27L in their last 62 games (1.02 PPG), while SpVgg Greuther Fürth have gone 18W 14D 30L in their last 62 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Preußen Münster at home or SpVgg Greuther Fürth away?
Preußen Münster's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Preußen Münster at home: 1.10 PPG; SpVgg Greuther Fürth away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Preußen Münster and SpVgg Greuther Fürth runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Preußen Münster's record when hosting SpVgg Greuther Fürth specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Preußen Münster
1
Draws
2
SpVgg Greuther Fürth
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Preußen Münster and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
From 4 meetings on record, Preußen Münster have won 1, SpVgg Greuther Fürth have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Preußen Münster and SpVgg Greuther Fürth last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Preußen Münster 0-0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth.
Who has won more matches between Preußen Münster and SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
SpVgg Greuther Fürth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Preußen Münster are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Preußen Münster 68%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Preußen Münster) and 64% (SpVgg Greuther Fürth).
On the defensive side: SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Preußen Münster home games / SpVgg Greuther Fürth away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Preußen Münster play SpVgg Greuther Fürth?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Preußen Münster's games and 58% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Preußen Münster vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Preußen Münster's recent games and 64% of SpVgg Greuther Fürth's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Preußen Münster and SpVgg Greuther Fürth tend to score early?
Preußen Münster have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, SpVgg Greuther Fürth in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Preußen Münster's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Preußen Münster and SpVgg Greuther Fürth finished level at 0-0 at Preussenstadion, Regular Season - 29, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Preußen Münster 1.48 xG and SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.52 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Preußen Münster fell 1.5 short of their projected output. SpVgg Greuther Fürth landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Preußen Münster attack 0.82 / defence 1.20 against SpVgg Greuther Fürth attack 0.97 / defence 1.14, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Preußen Münster 36% | Draw 27% | SpVgg Greuther Fürth 37%, with SpVgg Greuther Fürth to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Preußen Münster 52%, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Preußen Münster's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
SpVgg Greuther Fürth's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Preußen Münster 1.02 PPG, SpVgg Greuther Fürth 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Preußen Münster (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.16 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. SpVgg Greuther Fürth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.