SSV Jahn Regensburg 2-2 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg at 41%, yet in-form 1. FC Magdeburg provide a compelling counter-argument — this SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Jahnstadion Regensburg plays host to SSV Jahn Regensburg versus 1. FC Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off: Sunday 9 April 2023 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
SSV Jahn Regensburg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SSV Jahn Regensburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SSV Jahn Regensburg have posted 3W 4D 3L at Jahnstadion Regensburg — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — SSV Jahn Regensburg are significantly better at Jahnstadion Regensburg than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Magdeburg have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Magdeburg's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, 1. FC Magdeburg are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.40 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W, 1. FC Magdeburg 1W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with 1. FC Magdeburg winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
SSV Jahn Regensburg — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
1. FC Magdeburg — key trading statistics (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SSV Jahn Regensburg 31% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SSV Jahn Regensburg 46% | 1. FC Magdeburg 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.46 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.733 / defence 1.007 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.004 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.264. SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 1.46 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. 1. FC Magdeburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing SSV Jahn Regensburg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 60 SSV Jahn Regensburg games / 26 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 41% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Magdeburg 33%. Fair-value odds: SSV Jahn Regensburg 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | 1. FC Magdeburg 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, SSV Jahn Regensburg are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form 1. FC Magdeburg (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SSV Jahn Regensburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SSV Jahn Regensburg 50% | 1. FC Magdeburg 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Jahnstadion Regensburg • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SSV Jahn Regensburg 41% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Magdeburg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.46 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.733 / def 1.007 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.004 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.504 / away 1.264 • Poisson stance: SSV Jahn Regensburg (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Expected Goals
1.28
1. FC Magdeburg xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What was the final score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
SSV Jahn Regensburg 2 - 2 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Jahnstadion Regensburg.
What competition is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives SSV Jahn Regensburg a 41% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SSV Jahn Regensburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Record (1 meetings): SSV Jahn Regensburg 0W | Draws 0 | 1. FC Magdeburg 1W.
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
SSV Jahn Regensburg (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates SSV Jahn Regensburg's attack at 0.73x the league average against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (1.00x) against SSV Jahn Regensburg's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 60/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SSV Jahn Regensburg Win
41%
2.41
26%
3.92
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
SSV Jahn Regensburg xG
Total xG
2.74
1.28
1. FC Magdeburg xG
2.41
41%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
12%
8.66
8%
13.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.1 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1.28 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
SSV Jahn Regensburg come into this having played 26 games, going 7W 5D 14L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for SSV Jahn Regensburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 1.19 PPG from 26 outings (9W 4D 13L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for SSV Jahn Regensburg against 1.19 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home form reads 4W 5D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 1.23 points per game from 13 outings (5W 1D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
SSV Jahn Regensburg are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.31 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 26 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SSV Jahn Regensburg
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 7W 5D 14L in their last 26 games (1.00 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 9W 4D 13L in their last 26 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
SSV Jahn Regensburg's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SSV Jahn Regensburg at home: 1.31 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
1. FC Magdeburg go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Magdeburg won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SSV Jahn Regensburg have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
SSV Jahn Regensburg
1
Draws
3
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 4 meetings on record, SSV Jahn Regensburg have won 0, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when 1. FC Magdeburg 3-0 SSV Jahn Regensburg.
Who has won more matches between SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Magdeburg?
1. FC Magdeburg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
SSV Jahn Regensburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SSV Jahn Regensburg 38%, 1. FC Magdeburg 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 38% for SSV Jahn Regensburg and 85% for 1. FC Magdeburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SSV Jahn Regensburg keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; SSV Jahn Regensburg have failed to score in 38% of games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SSV Jahn Regensburg home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SSV Jahn Regensburg play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's recent matches and 69% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SSV Jahn Regensburg vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 38% of SSV Jahn Regensburg's matches and 85% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
SSV Jahn Regensburg have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Magdeburg share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SSV Jahn Regensburg and 1. FC Magdeburg finished level at 2-2 at Jahnstadion Regensburg, Regular Season - 27, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.46 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.28 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SSV Jahn Regensburg attack 0.73 / defence 1.01 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.00 / defence 1.32, drawn from 60/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SSV Jahn Regensburg 41% | Draw 26% | 1. FC Magdeburg 33%, with SSV Jahn Regensburg to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SSV Jahn Regensburg 46%, 1. FC Magdeburg 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SSV Jahn Regensburg's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SSV Jahn Regensburg 1.00 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SSV Jahn Regensburg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.