Hamburger SV 2-0 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Hamburger SV at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Volksparkstadion plays host to Hamburger SV versus 1. FC Magdeburg in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 12). Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 19:30 UK time.
Form
Hamburger SV (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Hamburger SV's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Hamburger SV are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
1. FC Magdeburg have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
1. FC Magdeburg away from home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Hamburger SV's favour (1.80 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Hamburger SV's last 10 home games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 away games) — Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, 1. FC Magdeburg in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, 1. FC Magdeburg edge it 2 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 29 Apr 2023, ended Hamburger SV 2–3 1. FC Magdeburg — a 1. FC Magdeburg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Hamburger SV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 91% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
1. FC Magdeburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Hamburger SV 60% and 1. FC Magdeburg 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hamburger SV 62% | 1. FC Magdeburg 64%). Note also that 1. FC Magdeburg surrender HT leads in 43% of cases while Hamburger SV recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hamburger SV 2.07 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hamburger SV attack 1.238 / defence 0.717 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.006 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.664 / away 1.372. Hamburger SV have a tight defence (rating 0.717), which is pulling 1. FC Magdeburg's projected output down. Data: built from Hamburger SV's last 45 games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 45.
Result probabilities: Hamburger SV 61% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 16%. Fair-value odds: Hamburger SV 1.63 | Draw 4.53 | 1. FC Magdeburg 6.06. The model has a clear lean to Hamburger SV (61%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Hamburger SV are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Hamburger SV's last 10 home games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 away games) averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hamburger SV 60% (last 10 home games) | 1. FC Magdeburg 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 12 | Venue: Volksparkstadion • Kick-off: Saturday 4 November 2023 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hamburger SV 61% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% (Under 41%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Hamburger SV 2.07 / 1. FC Magdeburg 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Hamburger SV attack 1.238 / def 0.717 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.006 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.664 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Hamburger SV (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Hamburger SV xG
Expected Goals
0.99
1. FC Magdeburg xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg FAQs
What time does Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Saturday 4 November 2023 at Volksparkstadion.
What was the final score in Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Hamburger SV 2 - 0 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Volksparkstadion.
What competition is Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 12) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives Hamburger SV a 61% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Hamburger SV the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Hamburger SV's attack rating (1.24) and 1. FC Magdeburg's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (1.01x) against Hamburger SV's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from Hamburger SV's last 45 games and 1. FC Magdeburg's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Hamburger SV Win
61%
1.63
22%
4.53
16%
6.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Hamburger SV xG
Total xG
3.05
0.99
1. FC Magdeburg xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
6.06
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
13%
7.89
Win to Nil
23%
4.38
2%
47.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Hamburger SV and 0.99 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hamburger SV's recent record stands at 25W 9D 11L from 45 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-D in the last five.
1. FC Magdeburg, meanwhile, have gone 15W 11D 19L across 45 games — 1.24 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Hamburger SV by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over 1. FC Magdeburg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hamburger SV have managed 16W 3D 3L from their last 22 home games — 2.32 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.87 PPG overall — Hamburger SV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
1. FC Magdeburg's away record stands at 6W 5D 11L across their last 22 away games, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Hamburger SV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hamburger SV are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.51 scored and 1.64 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Hamburger SV have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 64%.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hamburger SV
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
Hamburger SV (Home) vs 1. FC Magdeburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Hamburger SV
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg Form FAQs
What form are Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
Hamburger SV have gone 25W 9D 11L in their last 45 games (1.87 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 15W 11D 19L in their last 45 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hamburger SV at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
Hamburger SV's home record (2.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hamburger SV at home: 2.32 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Hamburger SV or 1. FC Magdeburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hamburger SV have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, 1. FC Magdeburg in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent in our data was on 14 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Hamburger SV have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Hamburger SV won 1. FC Magdeburg 0-3 Hamburger SV on 14 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hamburger SV have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Hamburger SV
1
Draws
2
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Hamburger SV have won 3, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2025: 1. FC Magdeburg 0-3 Hamburger SV.
Who has won more matches between Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg?
Hamburger SV have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hamburger SV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hamburger SV 59%, 1. FC Magdeburg 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Hamburger SV and 68% for 1. FC Magdeburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hamburger SV keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; 1. FC Magdeburg in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hamburger SV home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Hamburger SV vs 1. FC Magdeburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Hamburger SV's games and 64% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Hamburger SV's matches and 68% of 1. FC Magdeburg's.
Do Hamburger SV and 1. FC Magdeburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 91% of Hamburger SV's recent matches and 64% of 1. FC Magdeburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hamburger SV cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over 1. FC Magdeburg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hamburger SV beat 1. FC Magdeburg 2-0 at Volksparkstadion, Regular Season - 12, in the 2. Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hamburger SV 2.07 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 0.99 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. 1. FC Magdeburg landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hamburger SV attack 1.24 / defence 0.72 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.01 / defence 1.00, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hamburger SV 61% | Draw 22% | 1. FC Magdeburg 16%, with Hamburger SV to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hamburger SV 62%, 1. FC Magdeburg 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hamburger SV's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Hamburger SV arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.24. Form held, and they took the win. Hamburger SV (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.41 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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