1. FC Magdeburg 1-2 SV Elversberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Magdeburg at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as 1. FC Magdeburg face SV Elversberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
1. FC Magdeburg welcome SV Elversberg to MDCC-Arena in 2. Bundesliga (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 29 October 2023 at 12:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters, 1. FC Magdeburg have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — 1. FC Magdeburg are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, SV Elversberg stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
SV Elversberg away from home: 2W 2D 1L from their last 5 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from their last 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — 1. FC Magdeburg at 1.30 PPG versus SV Elversberg's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 60% of SV Elversberg's (from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 home games and SV Elversberg's last 5 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
1. FC Magdeburg in-play and half-time data (last 10 games, 4 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; of the 4 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 75%; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
SV Elversberg in-play and half-time data (last 10 games, 4 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — 1. FC Magdeburg 80% and SV Elversberg 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Magdeburg 50% | SV Elversberg 60%). Note also that SV Elversberg surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while 1. FC Magdeburg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 75% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Magdeburg 1.69 xG and SV Elversberg 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.080 / defence 1.087 | SV Elversberg attack 0.922 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.747 / away 1.341. Data: built from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 44 games and SV Elversberg's last 10.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 45% | Draw 25% | SV Elversberg 30%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Magdeburg 2.23 | Draw 3.92 | SV Elversberg 3.37. 1. FC Magdeburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.69 / 1.34) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Magdeburg at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Magdeburg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (1. FC Magdeburg's last 10 home games and SV Elversberg's last 5 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: 1. FC Magdeburg 70% (last 10 home games) | SV Elversberg 60% (last 5 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, matchday 11 | Venue: MDCC-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Magdeburg 45% | Draw 25% | SV Elversberg 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% (Under 42%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG 1. FC Magdeburg 1.69 / SV Elversberg 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.080 / def 1.087 | SV Elversberg attack 0.922 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.747 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Magdeburg (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Expected Goals
1.34
SV Elversberg xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg FAQs
What time does 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg kick off?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Sunday 29 October 2023 at MDCC-Arena.
What was the final score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg?
1. FC Magdeburg 1 - 2 SV Elversberg.
Where is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg being played?
The match is being played at MDCC-Arena.
What competition is 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg part of?
1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg is a 2. Bundesliga fixture (matchday 11) (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Magdeburg a 45% chance of winning, SV Elversberg a 30% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Magdeburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
1. FC Magdeburg's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against SV Elversberg's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.69. The same calculation in reverse, SV Elversberg's attack versus 1. FC Magdeburg's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 1. FC Magdeburg's last 44 games and SV Elversberg's last 10 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Magdeburg Win
45%
2.23
25%
3.92
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
1. FC Magdeburg xG
Total xG
3.04
1.34
SV Elversberg xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
18%
5.43
Win to Nil
12%
8.56
5%
18.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 10.9 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for 1. FC Magdeburg and 1.34 for SV Elversberg, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
1. FC Magdeburg's recent record stands at 3W 4D 3L from 10 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-L in the last five.
SV Elversberg, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 3L across 10 games — 1.50 PPG, with W-W-D-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Magdeburg on 1.30 PPG, SV Elversberg on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, 1. FC Magdeburg have managed 2W 2D 0L from their last 4 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — 1. FC Magdeburg are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
SV Elversberg's away record stands at 2W 1D 1L across their last 4 away games, a 1.75 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
1. FC Magdeburg are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; SV Elversberg are on 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Magdeburg have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games; SV Elversberg in 60%.
Last 10 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg (Home) vs SV Elversberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
SV Elversberg
Blended
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg Form FAQs
What form are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg in coming into this match?
1. FC Magdeburg have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 games (1.30 PPG), while SV Elversberg have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Magdeburg at home or SV Elversberg away?
1. FC Magdeburg's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Magdeburg at home: 2.00 PPG; SV Elversberg away: 1.75 PPG.
Have 1. FC Magdeburg or SV Elversberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Magdeburg have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, SV Elversberg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in 2. Bundesliga. The most recent was on 6 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: SV Elversberg have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Oct 2025, when SV Elversberg won 1. FC Magdeburg 0-4 SV Elversberg.
1. FC Magdeburg's record when hosting SV Elversberg specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
1. FC Magdeburg
2
Draws
3
SV Elversberg
Recent Meetings
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 1, SV Elversberg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 March 2026: SV Elversberg 1-0 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg?
SV Elversberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
SV Elversberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — 1. FC Magdeburg at 100%, SV Elversberg at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (1. FC Magdeburg) and 25% (SV Elversberg).
On the defensive side: SV Elversberg in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Magdeburg home games / SV Elversberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ 1. FC Magdeburg vs SV Elversberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of 1. FC Magdeburg's games and 50% of SV Elversberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent games and 25% of SV Elversberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Magdeburg and SV Elversberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of 1. FC Magdeburg's recent matches and 75% of SV Elversberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SV Elversberg defy the odds to beat 1. FC Magdeburg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SV Elversberg beat 1. FC Magdeburg 1-2 at MDCC-Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Magdeburg 1.69 xG and SV Elversberg 1.34 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.08 / defence 1.09 against SV Elversberg attack 0.92 / defence 0.90, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Magdeburg 45% | Draw 25% | SV Elversberg 30%, with 1. FC Magdeburg to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual SV Elversberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Magdeburg 50%, SV Elversberg 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
SV Elversberg's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Magdeburg 1.30 PPG, SV Elversberg 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SV Elversberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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