Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 Eintracht Braunschweig – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Eintracht Braunschweig at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Eintracht Braunschweig make the trip to Merkur Spiel-Arena to face Fortuna Düsseldorf in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Friday 17 October 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Fortuna Düsseldorf's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fortuna Düsseldorf, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record at Merkur Spiel-Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 2. Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Eintracht Braunschweig (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Eintracht Braunschweig, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Eintracht Braunschweig's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in 2. Bundesliga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Fortuna Düsseldorf have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 6 meetings, with Eintracht Braunschweig managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fortuna Düsseldorf and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Fortuna Düsseldorf goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Eintracht Braunschweig goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fortuna Düsseldorf 62% and Eintracht Braunschweig 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fortuna Düsseldorf 60% | Eintracht Braunschweig 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.28 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.798 / defence 1.211 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.829 / defence 1.145. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.387. Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.28 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Fortuna Düsseldorf games / 42 Eintracht Braunschweig games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 35% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Braunschweig 40%. Fair-value odds: Fortuna Düsseldorf 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Eintracht Braunschweig 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Eintracht Braunschweig are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Eintracht Braunschweig if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Fortuna Düsseldorf 40% | Eintracht Braunschweig 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Merkur Spiel-Arena • Kick-off: Friday 17 Oct 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortuna Düsseldorf 35% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Braunschweig 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.28 / Eintracht Braunschweig 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.798 / def 1.211 | Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.829 / def 1.145 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.387 • Poisson stance: Eintracht Braunschweig (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig kick off?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 17 October 2025 at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What was the final score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Fortuna Düsseldorf 1 - 2 Eintracht Braunschweig.
Where is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Spiel-Arena.
What competition is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig part of?
Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our statistical model gives Fortuna Düsseldorf a 35% chance of winning, Eintracht Braunschweig a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Eintracht Braunschweig the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig will score (BTTS).
Will Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Record (6 meetings): Fortuna Düsseldorf 4W | Draws 2 | Eintracht Braunschweig 0W.
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig in?
Fortuna Düsseldorf (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Eintracht Braunschweig (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fortuna Düsseldorf's attack at 0.80x the league average against Eintracht Braunschweig's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Eintracht Braunschweig's attack (0.83x) against Fortuna Düsseldorf's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Eintracht Braunschweig Win
35%
2.89
26%
3.86
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Fortuna Düsseldorf xG
Total xG
2.68
1.39
Eintracht Braunschweig xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
25%
4.02
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
9%
11.64
11%
9.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.39 for Eintracht Braunschweig, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent record stands at 17W 12D 13L from 42 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Fortuna Düsseldorf is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Eintracht Braunschweig, meanwhile, have gone 11W 13D 18L across 42 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Eintracht Braunschweig is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Fortuna Düsseldorf against 1.10 for Eintracht Braunschweig. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fortuna Düsseldorf have managed 7W 6D 8L from 21 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Eintracht Braunschweig's away record stands at 4W 6D 11L across 21 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortuna Düsseldorf come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fortuna Düsseldorf are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Eintracht Braunschweig are on 1.17 scored and 1.76 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fortuna Düsseldorf have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortuna Düsseldorf
Blended
Eintracht Braunschweig
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig in coming into this match?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 17W 12D 13L in their last 42 games (1.50 PPG), while Eintracht Braunschweig have gone 11W 13D 18L in their last 42 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home or Eintracht Braunschweig away?
Fortuna Düsseldorf's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortuna Düsseldorf at home: 1.29 PPG; Eintracht Braunschweig away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Eintracht Braunschweig have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fortuna Düsseldorf won 5-0 on 8 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fortuna Düsseldorf have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Eintracht Braunschweig — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Fortuna Düsseldorf
2
Draws
2
Eintracht Braunschweig
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortuna Düsseldorf have won 4, Eintracht Braunschweig have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Eintracht Braunschweig 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf.
Who has won more matches between Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fortuna Düsseldorf are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Eintracht Braunschweig are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortuna Düsseldorf 48%, Eintracht Braunschweig 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Fortuna Düsseldorf) and 48% (Eintracht Braunschweig).
On the defensive side: Fortuna Düsseldorf keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Fortuna Düsseldorf have failed to score in 29% of games; Eintracht Braunschweig in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortuna Düsseldorf home games / Eintracht Braunschweig away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortuna Düsseldorf play Eintracht Braunschweig?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent matches and 52% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Eintracht Braunschweig usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Fortuna Düsseldorf's recent games and 48% of Eintracht Braunschweig's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fortuna Düsseldorf and Eintracht Braunschweig tend to score early?
Fortuna Düsseldorf have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Eintracht Braunschweig in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Eintracht Braunschweig edge out Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Eintracht Braunschweig beat Fortuna Düsseldorf 1-2 at Merkur Spiel-Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.28 xG and Eintracht Braunschweig 1.39 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortuna Düsseldorf attack 0.80 / defence 1.21 against Eintracht Braunschweig attack 0.83 / defence 1.15, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortuna Düsseldorf 35% | Draw 26% | Eintracht Braunschweig 40%, with Eintracht Braunschweig to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortuna Düsseldorf 60%, Eintracht Braunschweig 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortuna Düsseldorf's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Eintracht Braunschweig's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortuna Düsseldorf 1.50 PPG, Eintracht Braunschweig 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Eintracht Braunschweig win broke the near-deadlock. Eintracht Braunschweig (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.