1. FC Nürnberg 3-1 FC Schalke 04 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 40%, yet in-form FC Schalke 04 provide a compelling counter-argument — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A 2. Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees FC Schalke 04 travel to Max-Morlock-Stadion to take on 1. FC Nürnberg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 August 2024, 12:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, 1. FC Nürnberg stand at 1W 1D 8L from 10 2. Bundesliga matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. 1. FC Nürnberg have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, 1. FC Nürnberg have posted 3W 2D 5L at Max-Morlock-Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — 1. FC Nürnberg are significantly better at Max-Morlock-Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all 2. Bundesliga games this season, FC Schalke 04 have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Schalke 04 have played only a handful of 2. Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in 2. Bundesliga this season, FC Schalke 04 have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Schalke 04 are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
FC Schalke 04 have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 4 encounters against 1. FC Nürnberg's 0 victories.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 0–2 with FC Schalke 04 winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Schalke 04 have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
1. FC Nürnberg in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
FC Schalke 04 in-play tendencies (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 57% versus FC Schalke 04 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 63% | FC Schalke 04 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.51 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.927 / defence 1.042 | FC Schalke 04 attack 1.000 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.533 / away 1.320. Data: 35 1. FC Nürnberg games / 35 FC Schalke 04 games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 40% | Draw 26% | FC Schalke 04 34%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | FC Schalke 04 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Nürnberg at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Schalke 04 (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: 1. FC Nürnberg 30% | FC Schalke 04 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (35 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 40% | Draw 26% | FC Schalke 04 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.51 / FC Schalke 04 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.927 / def 1.042 | FC Schalke 04 attack 1.000 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.533 / away 1.320 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.38
FC Schalke 04 xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 kicked off at 12:00 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04?
1. FC Nürnberg 3 - 1 FC Schalke 04.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 40% chance of winning, FC Schalke 04 a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04 will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04?
Record (4 meetings): 1. FC Nürnberg 0W | Draws 0 | FC Schalke 04 4W.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04 in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. FC Schalke 04 (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from 1. FC Nürnberg's attack rating (0.93) and FC Schalke 04's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Schalke 04's attack versus 1. FC Nürnberg's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (35/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
40%
2.48
26%
3.91
34%
2.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.89
1.38
FC Schalke 04 xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
2.93
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
10%
9.81
7%
13.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 11.6 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04 expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.38 for FC Schalke 04, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
1. FC Nürnberg come into this having played 35 games, going 11W 7D 17L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Schalke 04 sit at 1.31 PPG from 35 outings (13W 7D 15L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Schalke 04, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: 1. FC Nürnberg on 1.14 PPG, FC Schalke 04 on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
1. FC Nürnberg's home form reads 6W 4D 7L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Schalke 04 have taken 0.71 points per game from 17 outings (3W 3D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Schalke 04's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; FC Schalke 04 are on 1.66 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 35 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Early Season
FC Schalke 04
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04 in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 11W 7D 17L in their last 35 games (1.14 PPG), while FC Schalke 04 have gone 13W 7D 15L in their last 35 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or FC Schalke 04 away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.29 PPG; FC Schalke 04 away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Dec 2021, when FC Schalke 04 won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
1. FC Nürnberg's record when hosting FC Schalke 04 specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
1. FC Nürnberg
0
Draws
6
FC Schalke 04
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 2, FC Schalke 04 have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04 last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when 1. FC Nürnberg 3-0 FC Schalke 04.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04?
FC Schalke 04 have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
FC Schalke 04 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — 1. FC Nürnberg 47%, FC Schalke 04 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 59% (FC Schalke 04). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 35% of games; FC Schalke 04 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / FC Schalke 04 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play FC Schalke 04?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 59% of FC Schalke 04's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs FC Schalke 04 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of 1. FC Nürnberg's matches and 59% of FC Schalke 04's.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and FC Schalke 04 tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, FC Schalke 04 in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
1. FC Nürnberg cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC Schalke 04.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Nürnberg beat FC Schalke 04 3-1 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the 2. Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.51 xG and FC Schalke 04 1.38 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. 1. FC Nürnberg beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.93 / defence 1.04 against FC Schalke 04 attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 35/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 40% | Draw 26% | FC Schalke 04 34%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 63%, FC Schalke 04 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
FC Schalke 04's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.14 PPG, FC Schalke 04 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Nürnberg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Nürnberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.24 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.