1. FC Nürnberg 1-2 1. FC Magdeburg – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates 1. FC Nürnberg at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg meet at Max-Morlock-Stadion in 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 November 2022 at 12:30 UTC.
Current Form
1. FC Nürnberg's overall 2. Bundesliga record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Nürnberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Max-Morlock-Stadion, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
1. FC Magdeburg (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 2. Bundesliga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for 1. FC Magdeburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
1. FC Magdeburg away from home this season: 2W 1D 4L from 7 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.57 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
1. FC Nürnberg — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 50% of games.
1. FC Magdeburg — key trading statistics (14 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — 1. FC Nürnberg 29% versus 1. FC Magdeburg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (1. FC Nürnberg 43% | 1. FC Magdeburg 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects 1. FC Nürnberg 1.51 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.783 / defence 1.031 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.013 / defence 1.354. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.286. 1. FC Nürnberg's attack strength of 0.783 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. 1. FC Magdeburg bring a strong defensive rating of 1.354 — this is suppressing 1. FC Nürnberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 1. FC Nürnberg games / 14 1. FC Magdeburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 40% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Magdeburg 33%. Fair-value odds: 1. FC Nürnberg 2.50 | Draw 3.70 | 1. FC Magdeburg 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is 1. FC Nürnberg at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on 1. FC Nürnberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: 1. FC Nürnberg 50% | 1. FC Magdeburg 57%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg | Competition: 2. Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Max-Morlock-Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Nov 2022, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: 1. FC Nürnberg 40% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Magdeburg 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 59% | xG 1. FC Nürnberg 1.51 / 1. FC Magdeburg 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.783 / def 1.031 | 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.013 / def 1.354 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: 1. FC Nürnberg (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Expected Goals
1.34
1. FC Magdeburg xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg kick off?
1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 6 November 2022 at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What was the final score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
1. FC Nürnberg 1 - 2 1. FC Magdeburg.
Where is 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg being played?
The match is being played at Max-Morlock-Stadion.
What competition is 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg part of?
1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany).
Who is favourite to win 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our statistical model gives 1. FC Nürnberg a 40% chance of winning, 1. FC Magdeburg a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making 1. FC Nürnberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg will score (BTTS).
Will 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg in?
1. FC Nürnberg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. 1. FC Magdeburg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates 1. FC Nürnberg's attack at 0.78x the league average against 1. FC Magdeburg's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.51 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — 1. FC Magdeburg's attack (1.01x) against 1. FC Nürnberg's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 48/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
1. FC Nürnberg Win
40%
2.48
27%
3.71
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
1. FC Nürnberg xG
Total xG
2.86
1.34
1. FC Magdeburg xG
2.48
40%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
11%
9.49
7%
13.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 7.7 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 7.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for 1. FC Nürnberg and 1.34 for 1. FC Magdeburg, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
1. FC Nürnberg come into this having played 14 games, going 4W 3D 7L for 1.07 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-D. The sample for 1. FC Nürnberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, 1. FC Magdeburg sit at 1.00 PPG from 14 outings (4W 2D 8L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for 1. FC Magdeburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.07 PPG for 1. FC Nürnberg against 1.00 for 1. FC Magdeburg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
1. FC Nürnberg's home form reads 2W 1D 3L across 6 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, 1. FC Magdeburg have taken 0.67 points per game from 6 outings (1W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, 1. FC Nürnberg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
1. FC Nürnberg are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; 1. FC Magdeburg are on 1.21 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: 1. FC Nürnberg have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: 1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — 2. Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
1. FC Nürnberg
Blended
1. FC Magdeburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg in coming into this match?
1. FC Nürnberg have gone 4W 3D 7L in their last 14 games (1.07 PPG), while 1. FC Magdeburg have gone 4W 2D 8L in their last 14 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — 1. FC Nürnberg at home or 1. FC Magdeburg away?
1. FC Nürnberg's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — 1. FC Nürnberg at home: 1.17 PPG; 1. FC Magdeburg away: 0.67 PPG.
Have 1. FC Nürnberg or 1. FC Magdeburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
1. FC Nürnberg have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, 1. FC Magdeburg in 7%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in 2. Bundesliga. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: 1. FC Magdeburg won 0-4 on 31 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, 1. FC Nürnberg have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against 1. FC Magdeburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
1. FC Nürnberg
1
Draws
3
1. FC Magdeburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg?
From 8 meetings on record, 1. FC Nürnberg have won 4, 1. FC Magdeburg have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when 1. FC Nürnberg 1-0 1. FC Magdeburg.
Who has won more matches between 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg?
1. FC Nürnberg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
1. FC Nürnberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
1. FC Magdeburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 17% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 50% (1. FC Magdeburg) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (1. FC Nürnberg) and 67% (1. FC Magdeburg).
On the defensive side: 1. FC Nürnberg keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; 1. FC Nürnberg have failed to score in 50% of games; 1. FC Magdeburg in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = 1. FC Nürnberg home games / 1. FC Magdeburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when 1. FC Nürnberg play 1. FC Magdeburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent matches and 50% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is 1. FC Nürnberg vs 1. FC Magdeburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of 1. FC Nürnberg's recent games and 67% of 1. FC Magdeburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do 1. FC Nürnberg and 1. FC Magdeburg tend to score early?
1. FC Nürnberg have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, 1. FC Magdeburg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as 1. FC Magdeburg defy the odds to beat 1. FC Nürnberg 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
1. FC Magdeburg beat 1. FC Nürnberg 1-2 at Max-Morlock-Stadion, Regular Season - 15, in the 2. Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting 1. FC Nürnberg 1.51 xG and 1. FC Magdeburg 1.34 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of 1. FC Nürnberg attack 0.78 / defence 1.03 against 1. FC Magdeburg attack 1.01 / defence 1.35, drawn from 48/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it 1. FC Nürnberg 40% | Draw 27% | 1. FC Magdeburg 33%, with 1. FC Nürnberg to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual 1. FC Magdeburg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (1. FC Nürnberg 43%, 1. FC Magdeburg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
1. FC Nürnberg's trading profile (14 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
1. FC Magdeburg's trading profile (14 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — 1. FC Nürnberg 1.07 PPG, 1. FC Magdeburg 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the 1. FC Magdeburg win broke the near-deadlock. 1. FC Magdeburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.