Valenciennes 1-4 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAU at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valenciennes vs PAU encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Hainaut plays host to Valenciennes versus PAU in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32. Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Valenciennes have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Valenciennes at Stade du Hainaut this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAU's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
PAU's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, PAU are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Valenciennes 1W, PAU 2W, 2D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2023, ended 1–3 with PAU winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Valenciennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valenciennes 45% versus PAU 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valenciennes 38% | PAU 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valenciennes 0.85 xG and PAU 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valenciennes attack 0.704 / defence 1.003 | PAU attack 1.025 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.160. Valenciennes's attack strength of 0.704 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 69 Valenciennes games / 69 PAU games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valenciennes 25% | Draw 33% | PAU 43%. Fair-value odds: Valenciennes 4.00 | Draw 3.03 | PAU 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Valenciennes 30% | PAU 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valenciennes vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade du Hainaut • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valenciennes 25% | Draw 33% | PAU 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Valenciennes 0.85 / PAU 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Valenciennes attack 0.704 / def 1.003 | PAU attack 1.025 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: PAU (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Valenciennes xG
Expected Goals
1.19
PAU xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valenciennes vs PAU kick off?
Valenciennes vs PAU kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stade du Hainaut.
What was the final score in Valenciennes vs PAU?
Valenciennes 1 - 4 PAU.
Where is Valenciennes vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Hainaut.
What competition is Valenciennes vs PAU part of?
Valenciennes vs PAU is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Valenciennes vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Valenciennes a 25% chance of winning, PAU a 43% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valenciennes vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Valenciennes and PAU will score (BTTS).
Will Valenciennes vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and PAU?
Record (5 meetings): Valenciennes 1W | Draws 2 | PAU 2W.
What form are Valenciennes and PAU in?
Valenciennes (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. PAU (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Valenciennes's attack at 0.70x the league average against PAU's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAU's attack (1.02x) against Valenciennes's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
25%
4.02
33%
3.07
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Valenciennes xG
Total xG
2.04
1.19
PAU xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
8%
13.25
18%
5.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 15.5 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valenciennes vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Valenciennes and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Valenciennes and 1.19 for PAU, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Valenciennes vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 69 outings, Valenciennes have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 12W 26D 31L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
PAU's form line: 23W 22D 24L from 69 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D.
Put side by side, PAU are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valenciennes.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Valenciennes have posted 1.12 PPG from 34 outings (7W 17D 10L).
On the road, PAU have gone 11W 10D 13L from 34 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valenciennes are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.25 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valenciennes
Current Season
PAU
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valenciennes and PAU in coming into this match?
Valenciennes have gone 12W 26D 31L in their last 69 games (0.90 PPG), while PAU have gone 23W 22D 24L in their last 69 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valenciennes at home or PAU away?
PAU's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valenciennes at home: 1.12 PPG; PAU away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
PAU go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAU won 1-4 on 13 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valenciennes have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Valenciennes
2
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and PAU?
From 6 meetings on record, Valenciennes have won 1, PAU have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valenciennes and PAU last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Valenciennes 1-4 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Valenciennes and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valenciennes 53%, PAU 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Valenciennes) and 41% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Valenciennes have failed to score in 38% of games; PAU in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valenciennes home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valenciennes play PAU?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Valenciennes's recent matches and 56% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valenciennes vs PAU usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Valenciennes's recent games and 41% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valenciennes and PAU tend to score early?
Valenciennes have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, PAU in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAU run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Valenciennes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Valenciennes 1-4 at Stade du Hainaut, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valenciennes 0.85 xG and PAU 1.19 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. PAU outscored their 1.19 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valenciennes attack 0.70 / defence 1.00 against PAU attack 1.02 / defence 1.03, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valenciennes 25% | Draw 33% | PAU 43%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valenciennes 38%, PAU 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valenciennes's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
PAU's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAU arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valenciennes (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.