Valenciennes 1-4 PAU – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAU at 43% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Valenciennes vs PAU encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Hainaut plays host to Valenciennes versus PAU in Ligue 2 (matchday 32). Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Valenciennes have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Valenciennes at home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAU's record over their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
PAU's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, PAU are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.60). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, PAU edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Dec 2023, ended Valenciennes 1–3 PAU — a PAU win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Valenciennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 69 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
PAU goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 69 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valenciennes 45% versus PAU 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Valenciennes 38% | PAU 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valenciennes 0.85 xG and PAU 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valenciennes attack 0.704 / defence 1.003 | PAU attack 1.025 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.173 / away 1.160. Valenciennes's attack rating of 0.704 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.85. Data: built from Valenciennes's last 69 games and PAU's last 69.
Result probabilities: Valenciennes 25% | Draw 33% | PAU 43%. Fair-value odds: Valenciennes 4.02 | Draw 3.07 | PAU 2.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates PAU as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAU if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.04 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 67% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Valenciennes's last 10 home games and PAU's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Valenciennes 30% (last 10 home games) | PAU 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valenciennes vs PAU | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 32 | Venue: Stade du Hainaut • Kick-off: Saturday 13 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valenciennes 25% | Draw 33% | PAU 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG Valenciennes 0.85 / PAU 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Valenciennes attack 0.704 / def 1.003 | PAU attack 1.025 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.173 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: PAU (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Valenciennes xG
Expected Goals
1.19
PAU xG
41%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Valenciennes vs PAU FAQs
What time does Valenciennes vs PAU kick off?
Valenciennes vs PAU kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Stade du Hainaut.
What was the final score in Valenciennes vs PAU?
Valenciennes 1 - 4 PAU.
Where is Valenciennes vs PAU being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Hainaut.
What competition is Valenciennes vs PAU part of?
Valenciennes vs PAU is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 32) (France).
Who is favourite to win Valenciennes vs PAU?
Our statistical model gives Valenciennes a 25% chance of winning, PAU a 43% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valenciennes vs PAU?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Valenciennes and PAU will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will Valenciennes vs PAU have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Valenciennes's attack at 0.70x the league average against PAU's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAU's attack (1.02x) against Valenciennes's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Valenciennes's last 69 games and PAU's last 69 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
25%
4.02
33%
3.07
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Valenciennes xG
Total xG
2.04
1.19
PAU xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
8%
13.25
18%
5.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 15.5 | 9.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Valenciennes vs PAU Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Valenciennes vs PAU?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Valenciennes and PAU expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Valenciennes and 1.19 for PAU, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Valenciennes vs PAU?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 69 outings, Valenciennes have picked up 0.90 PPG on a 12W 26D 31L record — D-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
PAU's form line: 23W 22D 24L from 69 games, 1.32 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-D.
Put side by side, PAU are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Valenciennes.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Valenciennes have posted 1.12 PPG from their last 34 home games (7W 17D 10L).
On the road, PAU have gone 11W 10D 13L from their last 34 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valenciennes are averaging 0.87 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; PAU are on 1.25 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valenciennes
Current Season
PAU
Current Season
Valenciennes (Home) vs PAU (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Valenciennes
Current Season
PAU
Current Season
❓ Valenciennes vs PAU Form FAQs
What form are Valenciennes and PAU in coming into this match?
Valenciennes have gone 12W 26D 31L in their last 69 games (0.90 PPG), while PAU have gone 23W 22D 24L in their last 69 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valenciennes at home or PAU away?
PAU's away record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valenciennes at home: 1.12 PPG; PAU away: 1.26 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
PAU have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAU won Valenciennes 1-4 PAU on 13 Apr 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valenciennes have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against PAU — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Valenciennes
2
Draws
3
PAU
Recent Meetings
❓ Valenciennes vs PAU H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and PAU?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Valenciennes have won 1, PAU have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Valenciennes and PAU last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 April 2024: Valenciennes 1-4 PAU.
Who has won more matches between Valenciennes and PAU?
PAU have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valenciennes 53%, PAU 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Valenciennes) and 41% (PAU).
On the defensive side: Valenciennes have failed to score in 38% of games; PAU in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valenciennes home games / PAU away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Valenciennes vs PAU Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Valenciennes and PAU matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Valenciennes's recent matches and 56% of PAU's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Valenciennes and PAU matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Valenciennes's recent games and 41% of PAU's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valenciennes and PAU matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Valenciennes's recent matches and 68% of PAU's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant PAU run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Valenciennes.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Valenciennes 1-4 at Stade du Hainaut, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valenciennes 0.85 xG and PAU 1.19 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. PAU outscored their 1.19 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valenciennes attack 0.70 / defence 1.00 against PAU attack 1.02 / defence 1.03, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valenciennes 25% | Draw 33% | PAU 43%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valenciennes 38%, PAU 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valenciennes's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
PAU's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, PAU arrived the stronger side — 1.32 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Valenciennes (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAU (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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