PAU 1-0 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAU at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAU vs Ajaccio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Ajaccio travel to Stade Nouste Camp to take on PAU. The game is scheduled for Friday 13 December 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAU stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for PAU, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAU at Stade Nouste Camp this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Nouste Camp. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — PAU are significantly better at Stade Nouste Camp than their overall form suggests.
Ajaccio — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Ajaccio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ajaccio's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 9L across 10 road games this term (0.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — PAU at 1.10 PPG versus Ajaccio's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for PAU, 2 for Ajaccio and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
PAU trading profile (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Ajaccio trading profile (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAU 57% versus Ajaccio 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAU 55% | Ajaccio 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAU 1.47 xG and Ajaccio 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAU attack 1.043 / defence 0.894 | Ajaccio attack 0.664 / defence 1.042. League average goals — home 1.352 / away 0.998. Data: 53 PAU games / 53 Ajaccio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAU 59% | Draw 26% | Ajaccio 15%. Fair-value odds: PAU 1.69 | Draw 3.85 | Ajaccio 6.67. The model has a clear lean to PAU (59%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Ajaccio's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAU at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAU 40% | Ajaccio 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAU vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stade Nouste Camp • Kick-off: Friday 13 Dec 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAU 59% | Draw 26% | Ajaccio 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 34% | xG PAU 1.47 / Ajaccio 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: PAU attack 1.043 / def 0.894 | Ajaccio attack 0.664 / def 1.042 | league avg home 1.352 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: PAU (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
PAU xG
Expected Goals
0.59
Ajaccio xG
34%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAU vs Ajaccio kick off?
PAU vs Ajaccio kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 13 December 2024 at Stade Nouste Camp.
What was the final score in PAU vs Ajaccio?
PAU 1 - 0 Ajaccio.
Where is PAU vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Stade Nouste Camp.
What competition is PAU vs Ajaccio part of?
PAU vs Ajaccio is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win PAU vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives PAU a 59% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 15% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making PAU the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAU vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both PAU and Ajaccio will score (BTTS).
Will PAU vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Ajaccio?
Record (4 meetings): PAU 1W | Draws 1 | Ajaccio 2W.
What form are PAU and Ajaccio in?
PAU (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Ajaccio (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PAU's attack at 1.04x the league average against Ajaccio's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ajaccio's attack versus PAU's defence, projects 0.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 2-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAU Win
59%
1.70
26%
3.78
15%
6.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
PAU xG
Total xG
2.06
0.59
Ajaccio xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
6.72
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
55%
1.81
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
32%
3.08
3%
29.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.7 | 11.1 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 8.1 | 2.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAU vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are PAU and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for PAU and 0.59 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for PAU vs Ajaccio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, PAU have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 18W 16D 19L record — L-L-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for PAU is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ajaccio's form line: 16W 13D 24L from 53 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-L. The sample for Ajaccio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: PAU on 1.32 PPG, Ajaccio on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, PAU have posted 1.58 PPG from 26 outings (11W 8D 7L).
On the road, Ajaccio have gone 2W 5D 19L from 26 away games — 0.42 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ajaccio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAU come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAU are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.85 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAU
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAU and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
PAU have gone 18W 16D 19L in their last 53 games (1.32 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 16W 13D 24L in their last 53 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAU at home or Ajaccio away?
PAU's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAU at home: 1.58 PPG; Ajaccio away: 0.42 PPG.
Have PAU or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAU have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAU and Ajaccio runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
PAU's record when hosting Ajaccio specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
PAU
2
Draws
2
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAU and Ajaccio?
From 6 meetings on record, PAU have won 2, Ajaccio have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did PAU and Ajaccio last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2025, when Ajaccio 1-1 PAU.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAU are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAU 50%, Ajaccio 27% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (PAU) and 35% (Ajaccio).
On the defensive side: PAU keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Ajaccio in 65%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAU home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAU play Ajaccio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of PAU's recent matches and 27% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAU vs Ajaccio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of PAU's recent games and 35% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAU and Ajaccio tend to score early?
PAU have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Ajaccio in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAU edge out Ajaccio 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAU beat Ajaccio 1-0 at Stade Nouste Camp, Regular Season - 16, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAU 1.47 xG and Ajaccio 0.59 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAU attack 1.04 / defence 0.89 against Ajaccio attack 0.66 / defence 1.04, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAU 59% | Draw 26% | Ajaccio 15%, with PAU to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAU 55%, Ajaccio 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAU's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Ajaccio's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAU 1.32 PPG, Ajaccio 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAU win broke the near-deadlock. PAU (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.