Le Havre 1-0 Niort – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Le Havre at 55% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Le Havre vs Niort encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Océane plays host to Le Havre versus Niort in Ligue 2 (matchday 24). Kick-off: Saturday 18 February 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Le Havre (all games): 6W 4D 0L across their last 10 — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Le Havre at home: 7W 3D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Niort's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Niort's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Le Havre's favour (2.20 vs 1.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Le Havre, 0 for Niort and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.3 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 10 Sep 2022, ended Le Havre 1–0 Niort — a Le Havre win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Niort goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 41% versus Niort 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 33% | Niort 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.40 xG and Niort 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 1.065 / defence 0.661 | Niort attack 0.929 / defence 1.110. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.048. Le Havre have a tight defence (rating 0.661), which is pulling Niort's projected output down. Data: built from Le Havre's last 61 games and Niort's last 61.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 55% | Draw 29% | Niort 16%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 1.83 | Draw 3.45 | Niort 6.07. The model has a clear lean to Le Havre (55%) — a 26pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.04 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Le Havre 40% (last 10 home games) | Niort 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Niort | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Saturday 18 February 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 55% | Draw 29% | Niort 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% (Under 67%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Le Havre 1.40 / Niort 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 1.065 / def 0.661 | Niort attack 0.929 / def 1.110 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Niort xG
36%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Le Havre vs Niort FAQs
What time does Le Havre vs Niort kick off?
Le Havre vs Niort kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Niort?
Le Havre 1 - 0 Niort.
Where is Le Havre vs Niort being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Niort part of?
Le Havre vs Niort is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Niort?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 55% chance of winning, Niort a 16% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Niort?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Le Havre and Niort will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Le Havre vs Niort have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (67%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Le Havre's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Niort's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.40. Flip it around — Niort's attack (0.93x) against Le Havre's defence (0.66x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from Le Havre's last 61 games and Niort's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-1 (13.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
55%
1.83
29%
3.45
16%
6.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.0%
Draw
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.04
0.64
Niort xG
1.83
55%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
6.07
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.75
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
29%
3.49
4%
24.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.0 | 8.4 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 11.7 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Le Havre vs Niort Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Niort?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Niort expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Le Havre and 0.64 for Niort, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Niort?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Le Havre have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 26W 20D 15L record — W-D-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Niort's form line: 18W 15D 28L from 61 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Le Havre are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Niort.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.60 PPG from their last 30 home games (13W 9D 8L).
On the road, Niort have gone 7W 8D 15L from their last 30 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Le Havre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 0.84 conceded per game recently; Niort are on 1.00 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Blended
Niort
Blended
Le Havre (Home) vs Niort (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Le Havre
Blended
Niort
Blended
❓ Le Havre vs Niort Form FAQs
What form are Le Havre and Niort in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 26W 20D 15L in their last 61 games (1.61 PPG), while Niort have gone 18W 15D 28L in their last 61 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Niort away?
Le Havre's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.60 PPG; Niort away: 0.97 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Niort been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Niort in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Le Havre and Niort, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 18 February 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Le Havre have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Niort — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Le Havre
1
Draws
0
Niort
Recent Meetings
❓ Le Havre vs Niort H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Niort?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Le Havre have won 3, Niort have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Niort last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 February 2023: Le Havre 1-0 Niort.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Niort?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Niort are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 40%, Niort 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Le Havre) and 47% (Niort).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 30% of games; Niort in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Niort away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Le Havre vs Niort Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Le Havre and Niort matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Le Havre's recent matches and 40% of Niort's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Le Havre and Niort matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Le Havre's recent games and 47% of Niort's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Niort matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Le Havre's recent matches and 67% of Niort's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Le Havre edge out Niort 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Niort 1-0 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.40 xG and Niort 0.64 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 1.06 / defence 0.66 against Niort attack 0.93 / defence 1.11, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 55% | Draw 29% | Niort 16%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 33%, Niort 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Niort's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Le Havre arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.13. That form edge translated into the three points. Le Havre (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Niort (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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