Valenciennes 0-0 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Valenciennes at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Valenciennes vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Rodez make the trip to Stade du Hainaut to face Valenciennes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24. The match kicks off on Saturday 18 February 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Valenciennes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 4D 5L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Valenciennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Valenciennes's form when playing at home: 4W 6D 0L across 10 games at Stade du Hainaut this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Valenciennes are significantly better at Stade du Hainaut than their overall form suggests.
Rodez (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rodez away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.70 PPG for Valenciennes against 0.90 for Rodez. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Valenciennes lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Valenciennes half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Rodez half-time and goal-timing data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Valenciennes 51% versus Rodez 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Valenciennes 38% | Rodez 28%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Valenciennes 1.41 xG and Rodez 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Valenciennes attack 1.163 / defence 1.014 | Rodez attack 0.908 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.048. Data: 61 Valenciennes games / 61 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Valenciennes 47% | Draw 28% | Rodez 25%. Fair-value odds: Valenciennes 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Rodez 4.00. Valenciennes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Valenciennes at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Valenciennes if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Valenciennes 80% | Rodez 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Valenciennes vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Stade du Hainaut • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Feb 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Valenciennes 47% | Draw 28% | Rodez 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Valenciennes 1.41 / Rodez 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Valenciennes attack 1.163 / def 1.014 | Rodez attack 0.908 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.048 • Poisson stance: Valenciennes (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Valenciennes xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Rodez xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Valenciennes vs Rodez kick off?
Valenciennes vs Rodez kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 18 February 2023 at Stade du Hainaut.
What was the final score in Valenciennes vs Rodez?
Valenciennes 0 - 0 Rodez.
Where is Valenciennes vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Hainaut.
What competition is Valenciennes vs Rodez part of?
Valenciennes vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Valenciennes vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Valenciennes a 47% chance of winning, Rodez a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Valenciennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Valenciennes vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Valenciennes and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Valenciennes vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Rodez?
Record (3 meetings): Valenciennes 0W | Draws 2 | Rodez 1W.
What form are Valenciennes and Rodez in?
Valenciennes (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Rodez (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Valenciennes's attack rating (1.16) and Rodez's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rodez's attack (0.91x) against Valenciennes's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Valenciennes Win
47%
2.15
28%
3.51
25%
4.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Valenciennes xG
Total xG
2.38
0.96
Rodez xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
4.01
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
24%
4.11
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
6%
16.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Valenciennes vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Valenciennes and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Valenciennes and 0.96 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Valenciennes vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Valenciennes come into this having played 61 games, going 17W 22D 22L for 1.20 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. The sample for Valenciennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Rodez sit at 1.05 PPG from 61 outings (14W 22D 25L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Rodez is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Valenciennes against 1.05 for Rodez. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Valenciennes's home form reads 10W 11D 9L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.37 PPG return.
Away from home, Rodez have taken 1.07 points per game from 30 outings (8W 8D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Valenciennes are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 0.85 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Valenciennes
Blended
Rodez
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Valenciennes and Rodez in coming into this match?
Valenciennes have gone 17W 22D 22L in their last 61 games (1.20 PPG), while Rodez have gone 14W 22D 25L in their last 61 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Valenciennes at home or Rodez away?
Valenciennes's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Valenciennes at home: 1.37 PPG; Rodez away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rodez won 1-4 on 21 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Valenciennes have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Rodez — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Valenciennes
3
Draws
2
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Valenciennes and Rodez?
From 6 meetings on record, Valenciennes have won 1, Rodez have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Valenciennes and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Valenciennes 0-2 Rodez.
Who has won more matches between Valenciennes and Rodez?
Rodez have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Rodez see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Valenciennes 60%, Rodez 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Valenciennes) and 30% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Rodez in 33%; Rodez in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Valenciennes home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Valenciennes play Rodez?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Valenciennes's recent matches and 33% of Rodez's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Valenciennes vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Valenciennes's recent games and 30% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Valenciennes and Rodez tend to score early?
Valenciennes have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Rodez in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Valenciennes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Valenciennes and Rodez finished level at 0-0 at Stade du Hainaut, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Valenciennes 1.41 xG and Rodez 0.96 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Valenciennes fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Rodez landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Valenciennes attack 1.16 / defence 1.01 against Rodez attack 0.91 / defence 1.03, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Valenciennes 47% | Draw 28% | Rodez 25%, with Valenciennes to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Valenciennes 38%, Rodez 28%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Valenciennes's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rodez's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Valenciennes 1.20 PPG, Rodez 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Valenciennes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line. Rodez (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.