Laval 1-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Laval at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Laval vs Amiens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Amiens make the trip to Stade Francis Le Basser to face Laval in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32. The match kicks off on Friday 25 April 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Laval (all games): 4W 0D 6L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Laval have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stade Francis Le Basser — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Laval are significantly better at Stade Francis Le Basser than their overall form suggests.
Amiens's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Amiens's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Laval against 1.10 for Amiens. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Laval lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2024, ended 3–1 with Laval winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Laval half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games).
Amiens half-time and goal-timing data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Laval 48% versus Amiens 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Laval 44% | Amiens 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Laval 1.63 xG and Amiens 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Laval attack 0.986 / defence 0.944 | Amiens attack 0.812 / defence 1.190. League average goals — home 1.389 / away 1.100. Data: 69 Laval games / 69 Amiens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Laval 56% | Draw 25% | Amiens 19%. Fair-value odds: Laval 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Amiens 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Laval (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Laval are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Laval 40% | Amiens 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Laval vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stade Francis Le Basser • Kick-off: Friday 25 Apr 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Laval 56% | Draw 25% | Amiens 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Laval 1.63 / Amiens 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Laval attack 0.986 / def 0.944 | Amiens attack 0.812 / def 1.190 | league avg home 1.389 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Laval (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Laval xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Amiens xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Laval vs Amiens kick off?
Laval vs Amiens kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 25 April 2025 at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What was the final score in Laval vs Amiens?
Laval 1 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Laval vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Le Basser.
What competition is Laval vs Amiens part of?
Laval vs Amiens is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Laval vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Laval a 56% chance of winning, Amiens a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Laval the favourite.
Will both teams score in Laval vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Laval and Amiens will score (BTTS).
Will Laval vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Amiens?
Record (5 meetings): Laval 2W | Draws 2 | Amiens 1W.
What form are Laval and Amiens in?
Laval (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Amiens (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Laval's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Amiens's defensive record (1.19x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. Flip it around — Amiens's attack (0.81x) against Laval's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Laval Win
56%
1.79
25%
4.05
19%
5.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Laval xG
Total xG
2.47
0.84
Amiens xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
5.17
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
4%
26.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.1 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 11.6 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Laval vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Laval and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Laval and 0.84 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Laval vs Amiens?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Laval come into this having played 69 games, going 28W 17D 24L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Amiens sit at 1.35 PPG from 69 outings (24W 21D 24L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.46 PPG for Laval against 1.35 for Amiens. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Laval's home form reads 13W 8D 13L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, Amiens have taken 1.06 points per game from 34 outings (9W 9D 16L).
Attack vs Defence
Laval are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.01 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Laval
Current Season
Amiens
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Laval and Amiens in coming into this match?
Laval have gone 28W 17D 24L in their last 69 games (1.46 PPG), while Amiens have gone 24W 21D 24L in their last 69 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Laval at home or Amiens away?
Laval's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Laval at home: 1.38 PPG; Amiens away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Laval or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Laval have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Amiens in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Amiens won 0-3 on 30 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Laval have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Amiens — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Laval
3
Draws
2
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Laval and Amiens?
From 8 meetings on record, Laval have won 3, Amiens have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Laval and Amiens last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Amiens 0-0 Laval.
Who has won more matches between Laval and Amiens?
Laval have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Laval are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Laval 59%, Amiens 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Laval) and 41% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Amiens in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Laval home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Laval play Amiens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Laval's recent matches and 41% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Laval vs Amiens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Laval's recent games and 41% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Laval and Amiens tend to score early?
Laval have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Amiens in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Laval edge out Amiens 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Laval beat Amiens 1-0 at Stade Francis Le Basser, Regular Season - 32, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Laval 1.63 xG and Amiens 0.84 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Amiens landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Laval attack 0.99 / defence 0.94 against Amiens attack 0.81 / defence 1.19, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Laval 56% | Draw 25% | Amiens 19%, with Laval to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Laval 44%, Amiens 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Laval's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Amiens's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Laval 1.46 PPG, Amiens 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Laval win broke the near-deadlock. Laval (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.