Estac Troyes 2-2 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Estac Troyes face Quevilly.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Estac Troyes host Quevilly at Stade de l'Aube in Ligue 2 (matchday 5). Kick-off is Saturday 2 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Estac Troyes stand at 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Estac Troyes's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Quevilly — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Quevilly have gone 3W 2D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Estac Troyes at 0.70 PPG versus Quevilly's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (last 42 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 67%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Quevilly in-play tendencies (last 42 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 71% versus Quevilly 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 64% | Quevilly 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Estac Troyes surrender their half-time lead 67% of the time, while Quevilly have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.52 xG and Quevilly 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.107 / defence 1.158 | Quevilly attack 0.989 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 0.967. Data: built from Estac Troyes's last 4 games and Quevilly's last 42.
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 47% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 28%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.13 | Draw 3.91 | Quevilly 3.62. Estac Troyes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Estac Troyes as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estac Troyes 70% (last 10 home games) | Quevilly 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 5 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Saturday 2 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 47% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Estac Troyes 1.52 / Quevilly 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 1.107 / def 1.158 | Quevilly attack 0.989 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.237 / away 0.967 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Quevilly xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estac Troyes vs Quevilly FAQs
What time does Estac Troyes vs Quevilly kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Quevilly kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Quevilly?
Estac Troyes 2 - 2 Quevilly.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Quevilly part of?
Estac Troyes vs Quevilly is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 5) (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 47% chance of winning, Quevilly a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Estac Troyes and Quevilly will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Estac Troyes vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Estac Troyes's attack at 1.11x the league average against Quevilly's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Estac Troyes's last 4 games and Quevilly's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.91
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
2.63
1.11
Quevilly xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.91
26%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
6%
16.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.2 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estac Troyes vs Quevilly Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 1.11 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Estac Troyes come into this having played 42 games, going 5W 14D 23L for 0.69 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Quevilly sit at 1.21 PPG from 42 outings (12W 15D 15L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Quevilly carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.52 PPG clear of Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Estac Troyes's home form reads 2W 11D 7L across their last 20 home games, a 0.85 PPG return.
Away from home, Quevilly have taken 1.15 points per game from their last 20 away games (6W 5D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 2.07 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.14 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Early Season
Quevilly
Early Season
Estac Troyes (Home) vs Quevilly (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estac Troyes
Early Season
Quevilly
Early Season
❓ Estac Troyes vs Quevilly Form FAQs
What form are Estac Troyes and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 5W 14D 23L in their last 42 games (0.69 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 12W 15D 15L in their last 42 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Quevilly away?
Quevilly's away record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 0.85 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.15 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 5% of their recent games, Quevilly in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 2 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Estac Troyes
2
Draws
0
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Estac Troyes vs Quevilly H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Quevilly?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Estac Troyes have won 0, Quevilly have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Quevilly last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2024: Quevilly 1-1 Estac Troyes.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 71% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Quevilly see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 70%, Quevilly 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Estac Troyes) and 30% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Quevilly in 40%; Estac Troyes have failed to score in 30% of games; Quevilly in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estac Troyes vs Quevilly Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estac Troyes and Quevilly matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 25% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Estac Troyes and Quevilly matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 30% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Quevilly matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 50% of Quevilly's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes and Quevilly share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 5, as Estac Troyes and Quevilly drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.52 xG and Quevilly 1.11 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Quevilly outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 1.11 / defence 1.16 against Quevilly attack 0.99 / defence 1.11, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 47% | Draw 26% | Quevilly 28%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 64%, Quevilly 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Quevilly's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Quevilly arrived the stronger side — 1.21 PPG against 0.69. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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