Saint Etienne 0-0 Valenciennes – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Saint Etienne at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Saint Etienne vs Valenciennes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Valenciennes make the trip to Stade Geoffroy-Guichard to face Saint Etienne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 2 September 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Saint Etienne (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Saint Etienne have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Saint Etienne have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Saint Etienne are significantly better at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard than their overall form suggests.
Valenciennes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Valenciennes have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Valenciennes have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.50 for Saint Etienne, 1.20 for Valenciennes — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Saint Etienne 1W, Valenciennes 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2023, ended 2–0 with Saint Etienne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Valenciennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 64% versus Valenciennes 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 55% | Valenciennes 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.46 xG and Valenciennes 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 1.140 / defence 1.087 | Valenciennes attack 0.935 / defence 1.038. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 0.967. Data: 42 Saint Etienne games / 42 Valenciennes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 48% | Draw 26% | Valenciennes 25%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Valenciennes 4.00. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Saint Etienne 50% | Valenciennes 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Valenciennes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Sep 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 48% | Draw 26% | Valenciennes 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Saint Etienne 1.46 / Valenciennes 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 1.140 / def 1.087 | Valenciennes attack 0.935 / def 1.038 | league avg home 1.237 / away 0.967 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Valenciennes xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Saint Etienne vs Valenciennes kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Valenciennes kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 2 September 2023 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Valenciennes?
Saint Etienne 0 - 0 Valenciennes.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Valenciennes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Valenciennes part of?
Saint Etienne vs Valenciennes is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Valenciennes?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 48% chance of winning, Valenciennes a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Valenciennes?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Saint Etienne and Valenciennes will score (BTTS).
Will Saint Etienne vs Valenciennes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Valenciennes?
Record (2 meetings): Saint Etienne 1W | Draws 1 | Valenciennes 0W.
What form are Saint Etienne and Valenciennes in?
Saint Etienne (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Valenciennes (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Saint Etienne's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Valenciennes's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. Flip it around — Valenciennes's attack (0.94x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
48%
2.07
26%
3.79
25%
3.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.45
0.98
Valenciennes xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.95
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
6%
17.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.5 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Valenciennes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Valenciennes expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 0.98 for Valenciennes, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Valenciennes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 42 outings, Saint Etienne have picked up 1.43 PPG on a 16W 12D 14L record — W-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Saint Etienne, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Valenciennes's form line: 11W 16D 15L from 42 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. It's still early in the season for Valenciennes, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.17 for Valenciennes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Saint Etienne have posted 1.76 PPG from 21 outings (11W 4D 6L).
On the road, Valenciennes have gone 5W 4D 12L from 21 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Valenciennes are on 1.05 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Early Season
Valenciennes
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Saint Etienne and Valenciennes in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 16W 12D 14L in their last 42 games (1.43 PPG), while Valenciennes have gone 11W 16D 15L in their last 42 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Valenciennes away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.76 PPG; Valenciennes away: 0.90 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Valenciennes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Valenciennes in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Valenciennes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Saint Etienne
2
Draws
0
Valenciennes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Valenciennes?
From 4 meetings on record, Saint Etienne have won 2, Valenciennes have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Valenciennes last play each other?
They last met on 30 March 2024, when Valenciennes 0-2 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Valenciennes?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Valenciennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 48%, Valenciennes 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Saint Etienne) and 33% (Valenciennes).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Valenciennes in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Valenciennes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Saint Etienne play Valenciennes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 33% of Valenciennes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Saint Etienne vs Valenciennes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 33% of Valenciennes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Valenciennes tend to score early?
Saint Etienne have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Valenciennes in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Saint Etienne's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne and Valenciennes finished level at 0-0 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 5, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.46 xG and Valenciennes 0.98 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Saint Etienne fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Valenciennes landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 1.14 / defence 1.09 against Valenciennes attack 0.94 / defence 1.04, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 48% | Draw 26% | Valenciennes 25%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 55%, Valenciennes 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Valenciennes's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.43 PPG, Valenciennes 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Valenciennes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.