Dunkerque 1-1 Rodez – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dunkerque at 38%, yet in-form Rodez provide a compelling counter-argument — this Dunkerque vs Rodez fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 29 as Dunkerque welcome Rodez to Stade Marcel Tribut. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Dunkerque — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Dunkerque's home record at Stade Marcel Tribut: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Dunkerque are significantly better at Stade Marcel Tribut than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Rodez have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Rodez have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Rodez's 2.20 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Dunkerque's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Dunkerque, 2 for Rodez and 3 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Dunkerque in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Rodez in-play and half-time data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dunkerque 52% and Rodez 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 44% | Rodez 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 1.29 xG and Rodez 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 1.048 / defence 0.879 | Rodez attack 1.149 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.152 / away 1.169. Data: 62 Dunkerque games / 62 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 38% | Draw 29% | Rodez 33%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Rodez 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dunkerque are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Rodez (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dunkerque offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 50% | Rodez 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Rodez | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Marcel Tribut • Kick-off: Friday 3 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 38% | Draw 29% | Rodez 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Dunkerque 1.29 / Rodez 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 1.048 / def 0.879 | Rodez attack 1.149 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.152 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Dunkerque (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Rodez xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Rodez kick off?
Dunkerque vs Rodez kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 April 2026 at Stade Marcel Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Rodez?
Dunkerque 1 - 1 Rodez.
Where is Dunkerque vs Rodez being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Rodez part of?
Dunkerque vs Rodez is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Rodez?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 38% chance of winning, Rodez a 33% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Dunkerque the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Rodez?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Dunkerque and Rodez will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Rodez have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Rodez?
Record (7 meetings): Dunkerque 2W | Draws 3 | Rodez 2W.
What form are Dunkerque and Rodez in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Rodez (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Dunkerque's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Rodez's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Rodez's attack versus Dunkerque's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dunkerque Win
38%
2.64
29%
3.41
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.47
1.18
Rodez xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
28%
3.62
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
9%
11.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Rodez?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Rodez expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.18 for Rodez, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Rodez?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Dunkerque's recent record stands at 28W 14D 20L from 62 games, a 1.58 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five.
Rodez, meanwhile, have gone 20W 23D 19L across 62 games — 1.34 PPG, with W-D-W-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Dunkerque on 1.58 PPG, Rodez on 1.34. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Dunkerque have managed 18W 7D 6L from 31 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rodez's away record stands at 9W 11D 11L across 31 trips, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dunkerque come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Dunkerque are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Rodez are on 1.47 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rodez in 69%.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Current Season
Rodez
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Rodez in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 28W 14D 20L in their last 62 games (1.58 PPG), while Rodez have gone 20W 23D 19L in their last 62 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Rodez away?
Dunkerque's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 1.97 PPG; Rodez away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Dunkerque and Rodez runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Mar 2025, when Rodez won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Dunkerque's record when hosting Rodez specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Dunkerque
4
Draws
2
Rodez
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Rodez?
From 8 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 2, Rodez have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Rodez last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Dunkerque 1-1 Rodez.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Dunkerque are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Rodez are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 48%, Rodez 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Dunkerque) and 64% (Rodez).
On the defensive side: Dunkerque keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Rodez away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Rodez?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Dunkerque's games and 68% of Rodez's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dunkerque vs Rodez usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Dunkerque's recent games and 64% of Rodez's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Rodez tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Rodez in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dunkerque and Rodez share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dunkerque and Rodez finished level at 1-1 at Stade Marcel Tribut, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 1.29 xG and Rodez 1.18 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 1.05 / defence 0.88 against Rodez attack 1.15 / defence 1.07, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 38% | Draw 29% | Rodez 33%, with Dunkerque to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 44%, Rodez 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Rodez's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dunkerque 1.58 PPG, Rodez 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.