Clermont Foot 3-2 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Annecy at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Clermont Foot vs Annecy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 33 as Clermont Foot welcome Annecy to Stade Gabriel-Montpied. Kick-off is set for Friday 2 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Clermont Foot have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Clermont Foot's home record at Stade Gabriel-Montpied: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Annecy have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Annecy's 1.20 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Clermont Foot's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Clermont Foot, 1 for Annecy and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2024, ended 0–2 with Annecy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Clermont Foot in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Annecy in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 48% versus Annecy 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 41% | Annecy 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 0.83 xG and Annecy 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.582 / defence 1.091 | Annecy attack 0.827 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.405 / away 1.082. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.582 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Clermont Foot games / 70 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 30% | Draw 33% | Annecy 38%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Annecy 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.81. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.81 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Clermont Foot's lower xG of 0.83 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Annecy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.81 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 35% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Clermont Foot 60% | Annecy 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade Gabriel-Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 2 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 30% | Draw 33% | Annecy 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Clermont Foot 0.83 / Annecy 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.582 / def 1.091 | Annecy attack 0.827 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.405 / away 1.082 • Poisson stance: Annecy (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Annecy xG
35%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Annecy kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 2 May 2025 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Annecy?
Clermont Foot 3 - 2 Annecy.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel-Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Annecy part of?
Clermont Foot vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 30% chance of winning, Annecy a 38% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Clermont Foot and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Annecy?
Record (1 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 0 | Annecy 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Annecy in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Annecy (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Clermont Foot's attack rating (0.58) and Annecy's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 0.83 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Annecy's attack versus Clermont Foot's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.2%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
30%
3.36
33%
3.06
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
1.81
0.97
Annecy xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.84
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
44%
2.30
Win to Nil
11%
8.92
16%
6.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 16.0 | 7.8 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.3 | 6.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.2%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 0.97 for Annecy, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Clermont Foot's recent record stands at 11W 21D 34L from 66 games, a 0.82 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-D in the last five.
Annecy, meanwhile, have gone 24W 17D 25L across 66 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Annecy by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Clermont Foot heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Clermont Foot have managed 5W 13D 15L from 33 games — 0.85 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Annecy's away record stands at 12W 7D 14L across 33 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.79 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.23 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Current Season
Annecy
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Annecy in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 11W 21D 34L in their last 66 games (0.82 PPG), while Annecy have gone 24W 17D 25L in their last 66 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Annecy away?
Annecy's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 0.85 PPG; Annecy away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Clermont Foot or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Clermont Foot have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Annecy in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Clermont Foot and Annecy runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Annecy have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Clermont Foot's record when hosting Annecy specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
0
Draws
3
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Annecy?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Annecy have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Annecy 2-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Clermont Foot and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 52%, Annecy 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Clermont Foot) and 54% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Annecy in 30%; Clermont Foot have failed to score in 46% of games; Annecy in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 52% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 54% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Annecy tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Annecy in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Clermont Foot defy the odds to beat Annecy 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Annecy 3-2 at Stade Gabriel-Montpied, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 0.83 xG and Annecy 0.97 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Clermont Foot beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Annecy outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.58 / defence 1.09 against Annecy attack 0.83 / defence 1.02, drawn from 32/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 30% | Draw 33% | Annecy 38%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Clermont Foot win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 41%, Annecy 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Annecy's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Annecy arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.82. Form was overturned, with Clermont Foot winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.