Annecy vs Clermont Foot – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 41%, yet in-form Annecy provide a compelling counter-argument — this Annecy vs Clermont Foot fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Clermont Foot travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Friday 20 November 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Annecy have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy at Parc des Sports this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Clermont Foot — All Games: 0W 7D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Clermont Foot, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Clermont Foot have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Annecy are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Annecy register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Clermont Foot in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Annecy have won 3, Clermont Foot 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with Annecy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Annecy in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Clermont Foot in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 56% versus Clermont Foot 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 58% | Clermont Foot 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.36 xG and Clermont Foot 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.877 / defence 1.096 | Clermont Foot attack 1.024 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.358. Clermont Foot bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Annecy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Annecy games / 45 Clermont Foot games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 34% | Draw 25% | Clermont Foot 41%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.94 | Draw 4.00 | Clermont Foot 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Clermont Foot as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Annecy (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 60% | Clermont Foot 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 20 Nov 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 34% | Draw 25% | Clermont Foot 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Annecy 1.36 / Clermont Foot 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.877 / def 1.096 | Clermont Foot attack 1.024 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Clermont Foot xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Annecy vs Clermont Foot is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 20 November 2026 at Parc des Sports.
Where is Annecy vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Clermont Foot part of?
Annecy vs Clermont Foot is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 34% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 41% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Annecy and Clermont Foot will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Clermont Foot?
Record (4 meetings): Annecy 3W | Draws 0 | Clermont Foot 1W.
What form are Annecy and Clermont Foot in?
Annecy (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Clermont Foot (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Annecy's attack at 0.88x the league average against Clermont Foot's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Clermont Foot's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
34%
2.95
25%
4.02
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.88
1.52
Clermont Foot xG
2.95
34%
Home win
4.02
25%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
7%
13.54
11%
9.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.6 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Annecy and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Annecy and 1.52 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 45 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.51 PPG on a 20W 8D 17L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Clermont Foot's form line: 9W 18D 18L from 45 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-D. The sample for Clermont Foot is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Annecy are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Clermont Foot.
Venue Form
On home soil, Annecy have posted 1.41 PPG from 22 outings (8W 7D 7L).
On the road, Clermont Foot have gone 4W 8D 10L from 22 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Annecy are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.07 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Clermont Foot in 60%.
Last 45 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Clermont Foot
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 20W 8D 17L in their last 45 games (1.51 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 9W 18D 18L in their last 45 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Clermont Foot away?
Annecy's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.41 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Annecy or Clermont Foot been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Clermont Foot in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Annecy have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Annecy's record when hosting Clermont Foot specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Annecy
0
Draws
1
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Clermont Foot?
From 4 meetings on record, Annecy have won 3, Clermont Foot have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Clermont Foot last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Annecy 2-1 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Clermont Foot?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 64%, Clermont Foot 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Annecy) and 50% (Clermont Foot).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Clermont Foot?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Annecy's games and 64% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Annecy vs Clermont Foot usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Annecy's recent games and 50% of Clermont Foot's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Clermont Foot tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Clermont Foot in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.