Amiens 0-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 47% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Amiens face Estac Troyes.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Amiens host Estac Troyes at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Ligue 2 (matchday 35). Kick-off is Saturday 27 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Amiens — last 10 games: 1W 7D 2L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Amiens have gone 2W 5D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Estac Troyes stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Estac Troyes away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Amiens at 1.00 PPG versus Estac Troyes's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Amiens have won 0, Estac Troyes 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Dec 2023, ended Amiens 0–2 Estac Troyes — a Estac Troyes win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Amiens in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 47% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 55%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 47% versus Estac Troyes 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 36% | Estac Troyes 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.16 xG and Estac Troyes 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.839 / defence 0.989 | Estac Troyes attack 0.621 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.194 / away 1.139. Estac Troyes's attack rating of 0.621 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.70. Data: built from Amiens's last 72 games and Estac Troyes's last 34.
Result probabilities: Amiens 47% | Draw 32% | Estac Troyes 22%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.15 | Draw 3.17 | Estac Troyes 4.58. Amiens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Estac Troyes's lower xG of 0.70 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 1.86 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Amiens's last 10 home games and Estac Troyes's last 10 away games) averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 65%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Amiens 60% (last 10 home games) | Estac Troyes 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 35 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Saturday 27 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 47% | Draw 32% | Estac Troyes 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Amiens 1.16 / Estac Troyes 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.839 / def 0.989 | Estac Troyes attack 0.621 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.194 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Amiens (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Estac Troyes xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Amiens vs Estac Troyes FAQs
What time does Amiens vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Amiens vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 27 April 2024 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Estac Troyes?
Amiens 0 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Amiens vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Estac Troyes part of?
Amiens vs Estac Troyes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 35) (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 47% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Amiens and Estac Troyes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Amiens vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Amiens's attack at 0.84x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Amiens's last 72 games and Estac Troyes's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
47%
2.15
32%
3.17
22%
4.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Amiens xG
Total xG
1.86
0.70
Estac Troyes xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
4.58
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
23%
4.32
7%
14.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 10.9 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.6 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Amiens vs Estac Troyes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Amiens and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Amiens and 0.70 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, Amiens have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 23W 23D 26L record — L-D-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Estac Troyes's form line: 12W 24D 36L from 72 games, 0.83 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D.
Put side by side, Amiens are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estac Troyes.
Venue Form
On home soil, Amiens have posted 1.39 PPG from their last 36 home games (13W 11D 12L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 4W 10D 22L from their last 36 away games — 0.61 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Amiens are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.17 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 65%.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Current Season
Estac Troyes
Current Season
Amiens (Home) vs Estac Troyes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Amiens
Current Season
Estac Troyes
Current Season
❓ Amiens vs Estac Troyes Form FAQs
What form are Amiens and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 23W 23D 26L in their last 72 games (1.28 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 12W 24D 36L in their last 72 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Estac Troyes away?
Amiens's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.39 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.61 PPG.
Have Amiens or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from December 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 2 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Estac Troyes have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 3 Jan 2025, when Estac Troyes won Amiens 0-3 Estac Troyes.
Amiens's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Amiens
1
Draws
5
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Amiens vs Estac Troyes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Estac Troyes?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Amiens have won 0, Estac Troyes have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Amiens and Estac Troyes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 March 2026: Amiens 0-2 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Amiens see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 50%, Estac Troyes 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Amiens) and 61% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Amiens vs Estac Troyes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Amiens and Estac Troyes matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Amiens's games and 61% of Estac Troyes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Amiens and Estac Troyes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Amiens's recent games and 61% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Estac Troyes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 47% of Amiens's recent matches and 69% of Estac Troyes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Amiens's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens and Estac Troyes finished level at 0-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.16 xG and Estac Troyes 0.70 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Amiens fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.84 / defence 0.99 against Estac Troyes attack 0.62 / defence 1.16, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 47% | Draw 32% | Estac Troyes 22%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 36%, Estac Troyes 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Amiens arrived the stronger side — 1.28 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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