Dunkerque 1-3 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Dunkerque vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Marcel-Tribut plays host to Dunkerque versus Auxerre in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off: Monday 29 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dunkerque have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dunkerque have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stade Marcel-Tribut — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Auxerre (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Auxerre have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.70 for Dunkerque, 1.70 for Auxerre — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Dunkerque, 2 for Auxerre and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Dunkerque winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Dunkerque half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dunkerque 38% versus Auxerre 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dunkerque 38% | Auxerre 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dunkerque 0.99 xG and Auxerre 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dunkerque attack 0.716 / defence 1.167 | Auxerre attack 1.054 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.208 / away 1.128. Dunkerque's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 0.99 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Dunkerque games / 34 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dunkerque 26% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 46%. Fair-value odds: Dunkerque 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Auxerre 2.17. Auxerre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.38 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Dunkerque 20% | Auxerre 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dunkerque vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stade Marcel-Tribut • Kick-off: Monday 29 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dunkerque 26% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Dunkerque 0.99 / Auxerre 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Dunkerque attack 0.716 / def 1.167 | Auxerre attack 1.054 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.208 / away 1.128 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Dunkerque xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Auxerre xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dunkerque vs Auxerre kick off?
Dunkerque vs Auxerre kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 29 April 2024 at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What was the final score in Dunkerque vs Auxerre?
Dunkerque 1 - 3 Auxerre.
Where is Dunkerque vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Marcel-Tribut.
What competition is Dunkerque vs Auxerre part of?
Dunkerque vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Dunkerque vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Dunkerque a 26% chance of winning, Auxerre a 46% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dunkerque vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dunkerque and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Dunkerque vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Auxerre?
Record (3 meetings): Dunkerque 1W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 2W.
What form are Dunkerque and Auxerre in?
Dunkerque (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Auxerre (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dunkerque's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Auxerre's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.99. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (1.05x) against Dunkerque's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
26%
3.79
28%
3.59
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Dunkerque xG
Total xG
2.38
1.39
Auxerre xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
37%
2.69
Win to Nil
7%
15.17
17%
5.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 12.9 | 8.9 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dunkerque vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Dunkerque and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Dunkerque and 1.39 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Dunkerque vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dunkerque's recent record stands at 11W 8D 15L from 34 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five.
Auxerre, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 6L across 34 games — 1.88 PPG, with W-W-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Auxerre by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dunkerque heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dunkerque have managed 4W 3D 10L from 17 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Auxerre's away record stands at 8W 5D 4L across 17 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dunkerque are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.85 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dunkerque
Current Season
Auxerre
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dunkerque and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Dunkerque have gone 11W 8D 15L in their last 34 games (1.21 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 18W 10D 6L in their last 34 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dunkerque at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dunkerque at home: 0.88 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Dunkerque or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dunkerque have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Auxerre in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dunkerque have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Dunkerque
0
Draws
3
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dunkerque and Auxerre?
From 4 meetings on record, Dunkerque have won 1, Auxerre have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dunkerque and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 29 April 2024, when Dunkerque 1-3 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Dunkerque and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dunkerque 29%, Auxerre 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Dunkerque) and 53% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Dunkerque have failed to score in 53% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dunkerque home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dunkerque play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Dunkerque's recent matches and 65% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dunkerque vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Dunkerque's recent games and 53% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dunkerque and Auxerre tend to score early?
Dunkerque have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Auxerre cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dunkerque.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre beat Dunkerque 1-3 at Stade Marcel-Tribut, Regular Season - 35, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dunkerque 0.99 xG and Auxerre 1.39 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Auxerre outscored their 1.39 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dunkerque attack 0.72 / defence 1.17 against Auxerre attack 1.05 / defence 1.14, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dunkerque 26% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 46%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dunkerque 38%, Auxerre 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dunkerque's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dunkerque (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Auxerre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.