Toulouse 2-1 Nice – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Toulouse at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Toulouse face Nice.

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Analysis

Nice make the trip to Stadium de Toulouse to face Toulouse in Ligue 1 (matchday 24). The match kicks off on Sunday 3 March 2024 at 12:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Toulouse have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Toulouse's home record over their last 10 home games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Nice (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Nice's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Toulouse, 1.10 for Nice — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Toulouse, 1 for Nice and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2023, ended Toulouse 0–1 Nice — a Nice win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Toulouse goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).

Nice goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 57% versus Nice 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 56% | Nice 31%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.12 xG and Nice 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.971 / defence 1.116 | Nice attack 0.689 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.159. Nice's attack rating of 0.689 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.89. Data: built from Toulouse's last 61 games and Nice's last 61.

Result probabilities: Toulouse 39% | Draw 34% | Nice 27%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.58 | Draw 2.90 | Nice 3.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Toulouse if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 67% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Toulouse's last 10 home games and Nice's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Toulouse 70% (last 10 home games) | Nice 20% (last 10 away games).

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