Monaco 0-0 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Louis-II plays host to Monaco versus Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1 (matchday 24). Kick-off: Friday 1 March 2024 at 20:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Monaco have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D D W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Monaco have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Paris Saint Germain (all games): 7W 3D 0L across their last 10 — 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Paris Saint Germain have posted 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Paris Saint Germain arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 4 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Monaco, 1 for Paris Saint Germain and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 4 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Nov 2023, ended Monaco 2–5 Paris Saint Germain — a Paris Saint Germain win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Monaco half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
Paris Saint Germain half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Monaco 64% and Paris Saint Germain 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Monaco 66% | Paris Saint Germain 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monaco 0.87 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monaco attack 0.951 / defence 1.108 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.386 / defence 0.666. League average goals — home 1.370 / away 1.136. Paris Saint Germain bring a tight defence (rating 0.666, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Monaco's projected output down. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack rating of 1.386, which lifts their away xG to 1.75. Data: built from Monaco's last 61 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 61.
Result probabilities: Monaco 16% | Draw 28% | Paris Saint Germain 56%. Fair-value odds: Monaco 6.11 | Draw 3.63 | Paris Saint Germain 1.78. The model has a clear lean to Paris Saint Germain (56%) — a 28pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Monaco 50% (last 10 home games) | Paris Saint Germain 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade Louis-II • Kick-off: Friday 1 March 2024 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monaco 16% | Draw 28% | Paris Saint Germain 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Monaco 0.87 / Paris Saint Germain 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: Monaco attack 0.951 / def 1.108 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.386 / def 0.666 | league avg home 1.370 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
Monaco xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Paris Saint Germain xG
50%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain FAQs
What time does Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Friday 1 March 2024 at Stade Louis-II.
What was the final score in Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain?
Monaco 0 - 0 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Stade Louis-II.
What competition is Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Monaco a 16% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 56% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Monaco and Paris Saint Germain will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Monaco's attack at 0.95x the league average against Paris Saint Germain's defence at 0.67x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Paris Saint Germain's attack (1.39x) against Monaco's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from Monaco's last 61 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.4%), 0-2 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
16%
6.11
28%
3.63
56%
1.78
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
Monaco xG
Total xG
2.61
1.75
Paris Saint Germain xG
6.11
16%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
1.78
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
17%
5.73
42%
2.38
Win to Nil
3%
35.03
24%
4.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 12.8 | 11.2 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Monaco and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for Monaco and 1.75 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Monaco have picked up 1.74 PPG on a 31W 13D 17L record — D-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Paris Saint Germain's form line: 43W 10D 8L from 61 games, 2.28 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Paris Saint Germain are the form team by 0.54 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Monaco.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Monaco have posted 1.63 PPG from their last 30 home games (15W 4D 11L).
On the road, Paris Saint Germain have gone 22W 5D 3L from their last 30 away games — 2.37 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Monaco are averaging 1.87 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.34 scored and 0.97 conceded. Monaco's scoring rate against Paris Saint Germain's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monaco
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Monaco (Home) vs Paris Saint Germain (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Monaco
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain Form FAQs
What form are Monaco and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Monaco have gone 31W 13D 17L in their last 61 games (1.74 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 43W 10D 8L in their last 61 (2.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monaco at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monaco at home: 1.63 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.37 PPG.
Have Monaco or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Monaco have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Monaco and Paris Saint Germain, the earliest from March 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 4 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Monaco have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Monaco won Monaco 3-0 Paris Saint Germain on 20 Mar 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monaco have gone 3W 1D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Paris Saint Germain — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Monaco
2
Draws
3
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Monaco and Paris Saint Germain?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Monaco have won 5, Paris Saint Germain have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monaco and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 September 2026: Paris Saint Germain 1-2 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Monaco and Paris Saint Germain?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 63% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monaco 60%, Paris Saint Germain 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Monaco and 63% for Paris Saint Germain. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monaco home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Monaco vs Paris Saint Germain Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Monaco and Paris Saint Germain matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Monaco's games and 53% of Paris Saint Germain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Monaco and Paris Saint Germain matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Monaco's matches and 63% of Paris Saint Germain's.
Do Monaco and Paris Saint Germain matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Monaco's recent matches and 73% of Paris Saint Germain's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Monaco's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Louis-II, Regular Season - 24, as Monaco and Paris Saint Germain drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monaco 0.87 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.75 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Monaco fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Paris Saint Germain landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monaco attack 0.95 / defence 1.11 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.39 / defence 0.67, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monaco 16% | Draw 28% | Paris Saint Germain 56%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 56%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monaco 66%, Paris Saint Germain 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monaco's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.28 PPG against 1.74. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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