Toulouse 2-0 Le Havre – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Le Havre at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Toulouse face Le Havre.

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Analysis & Preview

Le Havre travel to Stadium de Toulouse to take on Toulouse in Ligue 1 (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Toulouse stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Toulouse have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across their last 10 games, Le Havre have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Le Havre have gone 1W 4D 5L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Toulouse at 1.30 PPG versus Le Havre's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Toulouse have won 1, Le Havre 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 10 Mar 2024, ended Toulouse 0–1 Le Havre — a Le Havre win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Toulouse in-play and half-time data (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

Le Havre in-play and half-time data (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 62% versus Le Havre 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 60% | Le Havre 51%). Note also that Le Havre surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Toulouse recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 42% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.08 xG and Le Havre 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.798 / defence 1.036 | Le Havre attack 1.030 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.363. Toulouse's attack rating of 0.798 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.08. Data: built from Toulouse's last 37 games and Le Havre's last 37.

Result probabilities: Toulouse 27% | Draw 27% | Le Havre 45%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 3.66 | Draw 3.64 | Le Havre 2.21. Le Havre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Le Havre as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.53 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Toulouse 70% (last 10 home games) | Le Havre 50% (last 10 away games).

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