Le Havre 3-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Le Havre at 48%, yet in-form Auxerre provide a compelling counter-argument — this Le Havre vs Auxerre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 3 as Le Havre welcome Auxerre to Stade Océane. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Le Havre — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Le Havre's form when playing at home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 games at Stade Océane this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Auxerre have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Auxerre's 1.90 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Le Havre's 0.80 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Le Havre, 1 for Auxerre and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 May 2022, ended 1–2 with Auxerre winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Le Havre in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 47% versus Auxerre 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 50% | Auxerre 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.63 xG and Auxerre 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.894 / defence 1.177 | Auxerre attack 0.680 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.354. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Le Havre's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Le Havre games / 2 Auxerre games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 48% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 24%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Auxerre 4.17. Le Havre hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Le Havre at 48% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Auxerre (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Le Havre offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 50% | Auxerre 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 48% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Le Havre 1.63 / Auxerre 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.894 / def 1.177 | Auxerre attack 0.680 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Le Havre (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Auxerre xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Auxerre kick off?
Le Havre vs Auxerre kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Le Havre 3 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Le Havre vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Auxerre part of?
Le Havre vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 48% chance of winning, Auxerre a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Le Havre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Le Havre and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Auxerre?
Record (2 meetings): Le Havre 1W | Draws 0 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Le Havre and Auxerre in?
Le Havre (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Auxerre (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Le Havre's attack rating (0.89) and Auxerre's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Auxerre's attack versus Le Havre's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (36/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Le Havre Win
48%
2.06
28%
3.61
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.71
1.08
Auxerre xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
5%
21.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.7 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.08 for Auxerre, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Auxerre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Le Havre come into this having played 36 games, going 8W 11D 17L for 0.97 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Auxerre sit at 2.00 PPG from 36 outings (21W 9D 6L), a run that reads W-D-W-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Auxerre carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.03 PPG clear of Le Havre — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Le Havre's home form reads 6W 2D 10L across 18 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Auxerre have taken 1.61 points per game from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Le Havre are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.89 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Early Season
Auxerre
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 8W 11D 17L in their last 36 games (0.97 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 21W 9D 6L in their last 36 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Auxerre away?
Auxerre's away record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.11 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.61 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Auxerre in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Le Havre and Auxerre runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Le Havre's record when hosting Auxerre specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Le Havre
1
Draws
1
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Auxerre?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 4, Auxerre have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Le Havre 1-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Auxerre?
Le Havre have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 44%, Auxerre 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Le Havre) and 44% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Le Havre have failed to score in 44% of games; Auxerre in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Le Havre's recent matches and 56% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Le Havre's recent games and 44% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Auxerre tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Le Havre cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Le Havre beat Auxerre 3-1 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.63 xG and Auxerre 1.08 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Le Havre beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.89 / defence 1.18 against Auxerre attack 0.68 / defence 1.21, drawn from 36/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 48% | Draw 28% | Auxerre 24%, with Le Havre to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 50%, Auxerre 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Auxerre's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Auxerre arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.97. Form was overturned, with Le Havre winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Le Havre (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm. Auxerre (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.