Rennes 3-1 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Rennes face Paris Saint Germain.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 22 as Rennes welcome Paris Saint Germain to Roazhon Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 February 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Rennes — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Rennes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rennes's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Roazhon Park this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Paris Saint Germain stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Paris Saint Germain, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Paris Saint Germain have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Paris Saint Germain — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Rennes register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Paris Saint Germain in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Paris Saint Germain have the better historical record — 5 wins from 8 previous contests against 2 for Rennes.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2025, ended 0–5 with Paris Saint Germain winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Paris Saint Germain have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Rennes trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Paris Saint Germain trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 51% versus Paris Saint Germain 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 60% | Paris Saint Germain 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.33 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.078 / defence 1.060 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.275 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.176. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 55 Rennes games / 55 Paris Saint Germain games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rennes 32% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 44%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 3.12 | Draw 4.17 | Paris Saint Germain 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Rennes 70% | Paris Saint Germain 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Friday 13 Feb 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 32% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 59% | xG Rennes 1.33 / Paris Saint Germain 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.078 / def 1.060 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.275 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Paris Saint Germain xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 13 February 2026 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Rennes 3 - 1 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 32% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Rennes and Paris Saint Germain will score (BTTS).
Will Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Paris Saint Germain?
Record (8 meetings): Rennes 2W | Draws 1 | Paris Saint Germain 5W.
What form are Rennes and Paris Saint Germain in?
Rennes (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Paris Saint Germain (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rennes's attack at 1.08x the league average against Paris Saint Germain's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Paris Saint Germain's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
32%
3.13
24%
4.09
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.92
1.59
Paris Saint Germain xG
3.13
32%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
7%
15.31
12%
8.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Rennes and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Rennes and 1.59 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Rennes have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 21W 9D 25L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Rennes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris Saint Germain's form line: 42W 9D 4L from 55 games, 2.45 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Paris Saint Germain is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Paris Saint Germain are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rennes.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rennes have posted 1.70 PPG from 27 outings (14W 4D 9L).
On the road, Paris Saint Germain have gone 18W 6D 3L from 27 away games — 2.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rennes are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.55 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain in 64%.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rennes and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 21W 9D 25L in their last 55 games (1.31 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 42W 9D 4L in their last 55 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 1.70 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.22 PPG.
Have Rennes or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Dec 2025, when Paris Saint Germain won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Rennes's record when hosting Paris Saint Germain specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rennes
2
Draws
5
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Paris Saint Germain?
From 10 meetings on record, Rennes have won 3, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Rennes.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 48%, Paris Saint Germain 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Rennes) and 59% (Paris Saint Germain). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rennes play Paris Saint Germain?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Rennes's games and 70% of Paris Saint Germain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Rennes's matches and 59% of Paris Saint Germain's.
Do Rennes and Paris Saint Germain tend to score early?
Rennes have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Paris Saint Germain in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rennes cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Paris Saint Germain.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Paris Saint Germain 3-1 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.33 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.59 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rennes beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.08 / defence 1.06 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.27 / defence 0.83, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 32% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 44%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Rennes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 60%, Paris Saint Germain 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Rennes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.