Rennes 3-1 Paris Saint Germain – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (44%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Rennes face Paris Saint Germain.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Rennes welcome Paris Saint Germain to Roazhon Park in Ligue 1 (matchday 22). Kick-off is Friday 13 February 2026 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Rennes — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Rennes's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Paris Saint Germain stand at 9W 0D 1L — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Paris Saint Germain have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Paris Saint Germain — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.70 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Rennes's games and 60% of Paris Saint Germain's (from Rennes's last 10 home games and Paris Saint Germain's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Paris Saint Germain have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 2 for Rennes.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Dec 2025, ended Rennes 0–5 Paris Saint Germain — a Paris Saint Germain win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Paris Saint Germain have won 5 of 8 H2H matches, and at 3.0 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Rennes trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Paris Saint Germain trading profile (last 55 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 71%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 51% versus Paris Saint Germain 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 60% | Paris Saint Germain 66%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.33 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.078 / defence 1.060 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.275 / defence 0.832. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.176. Paris Saint Germain have an above-average attack rating of 1.275, which lifts their away xG to 1.59. Data: built from Rennes's last 55 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 55.
Result probabilities: Rennes 32% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 44%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 3.13 | Draw 4.09 | Paris Saint Germain 2.30. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Paris Saint Germain as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Rennes's last 10 home games and Paris Saint Germain's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 8 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rennes 70% (last 10 home games) | Paris Saint Germain 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 22 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Friday 13 February 2026 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 32% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% (Under 44%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Rennes 1.33 / Paris Saint Germain 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.078 / def 1.060 | Paris Saint Germain attack 1.275 / def 0.832 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Paris Saint Germain xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain FAQs
What time does Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain kick off?
Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Friday 13 February 2026 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Rennes 3 - 1 Paris Saint Germain.
Where is Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain part of?
Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 22) (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 32% chance of winning, Paris Saint Germain a 44% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Rennes and Paris Saint Germain will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Rennes's attack at 1.08x the league average against Paris Saint Germain's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Paris Saint Germain's attack versus Rennes's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rennes's last 55 games and Paris Saint Germain's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.1%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
32%
3.13
24%
4.09
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.92
1.59
Paris Saint Germain xG
3.13
32%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
26%
3.78
Win to Nil
7%
15.31
12%
8.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Rennes and Paris Saint Germain expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Rennes and 1.59 for Paris Saint Germain, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 55 outings, Rennes have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 21W 9D 25L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Paris Saint Germain's form line: 42W 9D 4L from 55 games, 2.45 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Paris Saint Germain are the form team by 1.14 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Rennes.
Venue Form
On home soil, Rennes have posted 1.70 PPG from their last 27 home games (14W 4D 9L).
On the road, Paris Saint Germain have gone 18W 6D 3L from their last 27 away games — 2.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Rennes are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Paris Saint Germain are on 2.55 scored and 0.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris Saint Germain in 64%.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Rennes (Home) vs Paris Saint Germain (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rennes
Blended
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
❓ Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain Form FAQs
What form are Rennes and Paris Saint Germain in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 21W 9D 25L in their last 55 games (1.31 PPG), while Paris Saint Germain have gone 42W 9D 4L in their last 55 (2.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Paris Saint Germain away?
Paris Saint Germain's away record (2.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 1.70 PPG; Paris Saint Germain away: 2.22 PPG.
Have Rennes or Paris Saint Germain been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Paris Saint Germain in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from February 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Dec 2025, when Paris Saint Germain won Paris Saint Germain 5-0 Rennes.
Rennes's record when hosting Paris Saint Germain specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rennes
2
Draws
5
Paris Saint Germain
Recent Meetings
❓ Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Paris Saint Germain?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rennes have won 3, Paris Saint Germain have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Paris Saint Germain last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Paris Saint Germain 2-2 Rennes.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 48%, Paris Saint Germain 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Rennes) and 59% (Paris Saint Germain). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Paris Saint Germain away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rennes vs Paris Saint Germain Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rennes and Paris Saint Germain matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Rennes's games and 70% of Paris Saint Germain's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rennes and Paris Saint Germain matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Rennes's matches and 59% of Paris Saint Germain's.
Do Rennes and Paris Saint Germain matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Rennes's recent matches and 70% of Paris Saint Germain's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rennes cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Paris Saint Germain.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rennes beat Paris Saint Germain 3-1 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.33 xG and Paris Saint Germain 1.59 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Rennes beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.08 / defence 1.06 against Paris Saint Germain attack 1.27 / defence 0.83, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 32% | Draw 24% | Paris Saint Germain 44%, with Paris Saint Germain to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Rennes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 60%, Paris Saint Germain 66%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Paris Saint Germain's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris Saint Germain arrived the stronger side — 2.45 PPG against 1.31. Form was overturned, with Rennes winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm. Paris Saint Germain (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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