Lorient 5-0 Clermont Foot – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lorient at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lorient face Clermont Foot.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Clermont Foot make the trip to Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat to face Lorient in Ligue 1 (matchday 34). The match kicks off on Sunday 19 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Lorient have collected 0.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly.
In front of their own supporters, Lorient have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 home games — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Clermont Foot (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Clermont Foot's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.40 PPG for Lorient against 0.80 for Clermont Foot. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Lorient, 2 for Clermont Foot and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 12 Nov 2023, ended Lorient 0–1 Clermont Foot — a Clermont Foot win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Lorient half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Clermont Foot half-time and goal-timing data (last 71 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 28 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lorient 61% versus Clermont Foot 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lorient 62% | Clermont Foot 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lorient 1.38 xG and Clermont Foot 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lorient attack 0.858 / defence 1.201 | Clermont Foot attack 0.684 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.392. Clermont Foot's attack rating of 0.684 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.14. Lorient's defence rating of 1.201 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Clermont Foot's projected output up. Data: built from Lorient's last 71 games and Clermont Foot's last 71.
Result probabilities: Lorient 42% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 31%. Fair-value odds: Lorient 2.37 | Draw 3.71 | Clermont Foot 3.24. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lorient at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lorient if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though recent form (Lorient's last 10 home games and Clermont Foot's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lorient 60% (last 10 home games) | Clermont Foot 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lorient vs Clermont Foot | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 34 | Venue: Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lorient 42% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Lorient 1.38 / Clermont Foot 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Lorient attack 0.858 / def 1.201 | Clermont Foot attack 0.684 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Lorient (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Lorient xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Clermont Foot xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lorient vs Clermont Foot FAQs
What time does Lorient vs Clermont Foot kick off?
Lorient vs Clermont Foot kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat.
What was the final score in Lorient vs Clermont Foot?
Lorient 5 - 0 Clermont Foot.
Where is Lorient vs Clermont Foot being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat.
What competition is Lorient vs Clermont Foot part of?
Lorient vs Clermont Foot is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 34) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lorient vs Clermont Foot?
Our statistical model gives Lorient a 42% chance of winning, Clermont Foot a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lorient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lorient vs Clermont Foot?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Lorient and Clermont Foot will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lorient vs Clermont Foot have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lorient's attack rating (0.86) and Clermont Foot's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Clermont Foot's attack (0.68x) against Lorient's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from Lorient's last 71 games and Clermont Foot's last 71 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lorient Win
42%
2.37
27%
3.71
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Lorient xG
Total xG
2.53
1.14
Clermont Foot xG
2.37
42%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
8%
12.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.6 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lorient vs Clermont Foot Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lorient vs Clermont Foot?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Lorient and Clermont Foot expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Lorient and 1.14 for Clermont Foot, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Lorient vs Clermont Foot?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lorient's recent record stands at 21W 18D 32L from 71 games, a 1.14 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Clermont Foot, meanwhile, have gone 22W 18D 31L across 71 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-L-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Lorient against 1.18 for Clermont Foot. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lorient have managed 12W 8D 15L from their last 35 home games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Clermont Foot's away record stands at 10W 10D 15L across their last 35 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Lorient are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Clermont Foot are on 1.00 scored and 1.46 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lorient have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lorient
Current Season
Clermont Foot
Current Season
Lorient (Home) vs Clermont Foot (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lorient
Current Season
Clermont Foot
Current Season
❓ Lorient vs Clermont Foot Form FAQs
What form are Lorient and Clermont Foot in coming into this match?
Lorient have gone 21W 18D 32L in their last 71 games (1.14 PPG), while Clermont Foot have gone 22W 18D 31L in their last 71 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lorient at home or Clermont Foot away?
Lorient's home record (1.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lorient at home: 1.26 PPG; Clermont Foot away: 1.14 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Lorient and Clermont Foot, the earliest from October 2021. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 25 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lorient won Lorient 5-0 Clermont Foot on 19 May 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lorient have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Clermont Foot — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Lorient
1
Draws
3
Clermont Foot
Recent Meetings
❓ Lorient vs Clermont Foot H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Clermont Foot?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Lorient have won 4, Clermont Foot have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Lorient and Clermont Foot last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 January 2025: Lorient 3-2 Clermont Foot.
Who has won more matches between Lorient and Clermont Foot?
Lorient have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lorient 60%, Clermont Foot 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Lorient) and 51% (Clermont Foot). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lorient have failed to score in 31% of games; Clermont Foot in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lorient home games / Clermont Foot away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lorient vs Clermont Foot Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lorient and Clermont Foot matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Lorient's games and 60% of Clermont Foot's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lorient and Clermont Foot matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Lorient's matches and 51% of Clermont Foot's.
Do Lorient and Clermont Foot matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Lorient's recent matches and 77% of Clermont Foot's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lorient run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Clermont Foot.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lorient beat Clermont Foot 5-0 at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 1.38 xG and Clermont Foot 1.14 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Lorient beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Clermont Foot landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 0.86 / defence 1.20 against Clermont Foot attack 0.68 / defence 1.16, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lorient 42% | Draw 27% | Clermont Foot 31%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 62%, Clermont Foot 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lorient's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Clermont Foot's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lorient 1.14 PPG, Clermont Foot 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lorient win broke the near-deadlock. Lorient (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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