Le Havre 1-2 Marseille – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Marseille at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Le Havre vs Marseille fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Marseille make the trip to Stade Océane to face Le Havre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Sunday 19 May 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Current Form
Le Havre's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Le Havre's home record at Stade Océane: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Marseille have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D D W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Marseille's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Marseille are 0.60 PPG clear of Le Havre in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Le Havre 0W, Marseille 1W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 8 Oct 2023, ended 0–3 with Marseille winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Le Havre half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Marseille half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 41% versus Marseille 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 35% | Marseille 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.16 xG and Marseille 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.761 / defence 0.954 | Marseille attack 0.896 / defence 1.090. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.392. Le Havre's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 33 Le Havre games / 71 Marseille games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Le Havre 35% | Draw 28% | Marseille 37%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 2.86 | Draw 3.57 | Marseille 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Marseille are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Marseille if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Le Havre 40% | Marseille 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Marseille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stade Océane • Kick-off: Sunday 19 May 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 35% | Draw 28% | Marseille 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Le Havre 1.16 / Marseille 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.761 / def 0.954 | Marseille attack 0.896 / def 1.090 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Marseille (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Marseille xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Marseille kick off?
Le Havre vs Marseille kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 19 May 2024 at Stade Océane.
What was the final score in Le Havre vs Marseille?
Le Havre 1 - 2 Marseille.
Where is Le Havre vs Marseille being played?
The match is being played at Stade Océane.
What competition is Le Havre vs Marseille part of?
Le Havre vs Marseille is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Marseille?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 35% chance of winning, Marseille a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Marseille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Marseille?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Le Havre and Marseille will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Marseille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Marseille?
Record (1 meetings): Le Havre 0W | Draws 0 | Marseille 1W.
What form are Le Havre and Marseille in?
Le Havre (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Marseille (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Le Havre's attack at 0.76x the league average against Marseille's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Marseille's attack (0.90x) against Le Havre's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 33/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Marseille Win
35%
2.86
28%
3.52
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.35
1.19
Marseille xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
12%
8.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Marseille?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Marseille expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.19 for Marseille, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Marseille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Le Havre's recent record stands at 27W 26D 18L from 71 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-L in the last five.
Marseille, meanwhile, have gone 34W 18D 19L across 71 games — 1.69 PPG, with D-D-W-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Le Havre against 1.69 for Marseille. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Le Havre have managed 17W 9D 9L from 35 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Marseille's away record stands at 14W 8D 13L across 35 trips, a 1.43 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Le Havre are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Marseille are on 1.65 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Current Season
Marseille
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Marseille in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 27W 26D 18L in their last 71 games (1.51 PPG), while Marseille have gone 34W 18D 19L in their last 71 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Marseille away?
Le Havre's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.71 PPG; Marseille away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Marseille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Marseille in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Marseille have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Marseille won 5-1 on 5 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Marseille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Le Havre
0
Draws
6
Marseille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Marseille?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 0, Marseille have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Marseille last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Le Havre 0-1 Marseille.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Marseille?
Marseille have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Le Havre see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Marseille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 34%, Marseille 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Le Havre) and 49% (Marseille).
On the defensive side: Le Havre keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Le Havre have failed to score in 37% of games; Marseille in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Marseille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Marseille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of Le Havre's recent matches and 51% of Marseille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Marseille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Le Havre's recent games and 49% of Marseille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Marseille tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Marseille in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Marseille edge out Le Havre 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Marseille beat Le Havre 1-2 at Stade Océane, Regular Season - 34, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Le Havre 1.16 xG and Marseille 1.19 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Marseille outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Le Havre attack 0.76 / defence 0.95 against Marseille attack 0.90 / defence 1.09, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Le Havre 35% | Draw 28% | Marseille 37%, with Marseille to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Le Havre 35%, Marseille 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Le Havre's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Marseille's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Le Havre 1.51 PPG, Marseille 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Marseille win broke the near-deadlock. Le Havre (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.