Auxerre vs Paris FC – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 36%, yet in-form Paris FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Auxerre vs Paris FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps plays host to Auxerre versus Paris FC in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Auxerre have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Paris FC's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Paris FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Paris FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Paris FC are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Auxerre 2W, Paris FC 1W, 3D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Paris FC half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 51% versus Paris FC 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 51% | Paris FC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.21 xG and Paris FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.838 / defence 0.989 | Paris FC attack 0.877 / defence 0.878. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.307. Data: 43 Auxerre games / 43 Paris FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 36% | Draw 31% | Paris FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.78 | Draw 3.23 | Paris FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Paris FC (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.34 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. This conflicts with form data: Auxerre 50% | Paris FC 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Nov 2026, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 36% | Draw 31% | Paris FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Auxerre 1.21 / Paris FC 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.838 / def 0.989 | Paris FC attack 0.877 / def 0.878 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.307 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Paris FC xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Paris FC kick off?
Auxerre vs Paris FC is scheduled to kick off at 16:15 on Saturday 7 November 2026 at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
Where is Auxerre vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Paris FC part of?
Auxerre vs Paris FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 36% chance of winning, Paris FC a 33% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Auxerre and Paris FC will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Paris FC?
Record (6 meetings): Auxerre 2W | Draws 3 | Paris FC 1W.
What form are Auxerre and Paris FC in?
Auxerre (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Paris FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Paris FC's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.21. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (0.88x) against Auxerre's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
36%
2.75
31%
3.22
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.34
1.13
Paris FC xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
12%
8.55
10%
10.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.9 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.13 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Auxerre's recent record stands at 11W 11D 21L from 43 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Paris FC, meanwhile, have gone 16W 13D 14L across 43 games — 1.42 PPG, with W-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Paris FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Auxerre against 1.42 for Paris FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 8W 5D 8L from 21 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris FC's away record stands at 5W 8D 8L across 21 trips, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.47 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Paris FC in 60%.
Last 43 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 11W 11D 21L in their last 43 games (1.02 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 16W 13D 14L in their last 43 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Paris FC away?
Auxerre's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.38 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 2, Ligue 1 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Auxerre
3
Draws
1
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Paris FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 2, Paris FC have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Paris FC last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Auxerre 0-0 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Paris FC?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 43%, Paris FC 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Auxerre) and 48% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Auxerre have failed to score in 38% of games; Paris FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Paris FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Auxerre's recent matches and 67% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Paris FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Auxerre's recent games and 48% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.