SJK 1-1 KuPS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SJK at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this SJK vs KuPS fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
OmaSp Stadion plays host to SJK versus KuPS in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 31 August 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
SJK (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for SJK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at OmaSp Stadion, SJK have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at OmaSp Stadion this season.
KuPS have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: D W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in SJK's favour (2.50 vs 2.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — SJK have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, KuPS in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
KuPS hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 3 wins from 5 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2025, ended 0–1 with KuPS winning.
It is worth noting that KuPS have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Data
SJK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
KuPS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SJK 65% versus KuPS 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SJK 73% | KuPS 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SJK 1.60 xG and KuPS 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SJK attack 1.173 / defence 0.800 | KuPS attack 0.926 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.676 / away 1.621. Data: 43 SJK games / 43 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SJK 46% | Draw 26% | KuPS 28%. Fair-value odds: SJK 2.17 | Draw 3.85 | KuPS 3.57. SJK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
KuPS lead the H2H ledger, but SJK carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates SJK as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on SJK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.80 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SJK 70% | KuPS 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SJK vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: OmaSp Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SJK 46% | Draw 26% | KuPS 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG SJK 1.60 / KuPS 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: SJK attack 1.173 / def 0.800 | KuPS attack 0.926 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.676 / away 1.621 • Poisson stance: SJK (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
SJK xG
Expected Goals
1.20
KuPS xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SJK vs KuPS kick off?
SJK vs KuPS kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at OmaSp Stadion.
What was the final score in SJK vs KuPS?
SJK 1 - 1 KuPS.
Where is SJK vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at OmaSp Stadion.
What competition is SJK vs KuPS part of?
SJK vs KuPS is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win SJK vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives SJK a 46% chance of winning, KuPS a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making SJK the favourite.
Will both teams score in SJK vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both SJK and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will SJK vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and KuPS?
Record (5 meetings): SJK 0W | Draws 2 | KuPS 3W.
What form are SJK and KuPS in?
SJK (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. KuPS (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
SJK's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against KuPS's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (0.93x) against SJK's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SJK Win
46%
2.19
26%
3.78
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
SJK xG
Total xG
2.80
1.20
KuPS xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
20%
4.95
Win to Nil
14%
7.26
6%
17.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 11.7 | 7.0 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.3 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SJK vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are SJK and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for SJK and 1.20 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for SJK vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
SJK's recent record stands at 23W 11D 14L from 48 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for SJK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS, meanwhile, have gone 30W 9D 9L across 48 games — 2.06 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for SJK against 2.06 for KuPS. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, SJK have managed 11W 6D 6L from 23 games — 1.70 PPG in front of their own supporters.
KuPS's away record stands at 9W 9D 5L across 23 trips, a 1.57 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 2.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of KuPS's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
SJK are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.75 scored and 0.96 conceded. SJK's scoring rate against KuPS's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: SJK have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SJK
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SJK and KuPS in coming into this match?
SJK have gone 23W 11D 14L in their last 48 games (1.67 PPG), while KuPS have gone 30W 9D 9L in their last 48 (2.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SJK at home or KuPS away?
SJK's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SJK at home: 1.70 PPG; KuPS away: 1.57 PPG.
Have SJK or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
SJK have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, KuPS in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, SJK have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SJK
4
Draws
6
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SJK and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, SJK have won 0, KuPS have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SJK and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when SJK 0-2 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between SJK and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
SJK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 70% for SJK, 61% for KuPS — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (SJK) and 48% (KuPS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KuPS in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SJK home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SJK play KuPS?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of SJK's games and 61% of KuPS's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SJK vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of SJK's matches and 48% of KuPS's.
Do SJK and KuPS tend to score early?
SJK have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, KuPS in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SJK and KuPS share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SJK and KuPS finished level at 1-1 at OmaSp Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SJK 1.60 xG and KuPS 1.20 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SJK attack 1.17 / defence 0.80 against KuPS attack 0.93 / defence 0.81, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SJK 46% | Draw 26% | KuPS 28%, with SJK to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SJK 73%, KuPS 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SJK's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
KuPS's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SJK 1.67 PPG, KuPS 2.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SJK (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.