Mariehamn 1-1 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Haka at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mariehamn vs Haka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 16 as Mariehamn welcome Haka to Wiklöf Holding Arena. Kick-off is set for Monday 21 July 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Mariehamn — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mariehamn, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mariehamn's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 games at Wiklöf Holding Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across all Veikkausliiga games this season, Haka have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Mariehamn at 1.00 PPG versus Haka's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Mariehamn have won 4, Haka 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with Mariehamn winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Mariehamn trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Haka trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mariehamn 52% versus Haka 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mariehamn 62% | Haka 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mariehamn 1.41 xG and Haka 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mariehamn attack 0.886 / defence 1.306 | Haka attack 0.876 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.555 / away 1.455. Data: 37 Mariehamn games / 37 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mariehamn 32% | Draw 26% | Haka 43%. Fair-value odds: Mariehamn 3.12 | Draw 3.85 | Haka 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.41 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haka at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Mariehamn 50% | Haka 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mariehamn vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Wiklöf Holding Arena • Kick-off: Monday 21 Jul 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mariehamn 32% | Draw 26% | Haka 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Mariehamn 1.41 / Haka 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: Mariehamn attack 0.886 / def 1.306 | Haka attack 0.876 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.555 / away 1.455 • Poisson stance: Haka (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Mariehamn xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Haka xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mariehamn vs Haka kick off?
Mariehamn vs Haka kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 21 July 2025 at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What was the final score in Mariehamn vs Haka?
Mariehamn 1 - 1 Haka.
Where is Mariehamn vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Wiklöf Holding Arena.
What competition is Mariehamn vs Haka part of?
Mariehamn vs Haka is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Mariehamn vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives Mariehamn a 32% chance of winning, Haka a 43% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mariehamn vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Mariehamn and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will Mariehamn vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Haka?
Record (8 meetings): Mariehamn 4W | Draws 1 | Haka 3W.
What form are Mariehamn and Haka in?
Mariehamn (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-D-D. Haka (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Mariehamn's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.41. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus Mariehamn's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
32%
3.16
26%
3.87
43%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
7.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Mariehamn xG
Total xG
3.08
1.67
Haka xG
3.16
32%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.35
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.66
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
6%
16.74
10%
9.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 7.7 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mariehamn vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Mariehamn and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Mariehamn and 1.67 for Haka, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Mariehamn vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 42 outings, Mariehamn have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 11W 9D 22L record — L-W-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Mariehamn is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haka's form line: 15W 8D 19L from 42 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mariehamn on 1.00 PPG, Haka on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Mariehamn have posted 1.15 PPG from 20 outings (6W 5D 9L).
On the road, Haka have gone 6W 4D 10L from 20 away games — 1.10 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Mariehamn are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.40 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mariehamn
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mariehamn and Haka in coming into this match?
Mariehamn have gone 11W 9D 22L in their last 42 games (1.00 PPG), while Haka have gone 15W 8D 19L in their last 42 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mariehamn at home or Haka away?
Mariehamn's home record (1.15 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mariehamn at home: 1.15 PPG; Haka away: 1.10 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Mariehamn and Haka runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 13 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Jul 2024, when Haka won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mariehamn's record when hosting Haka specifically: 3W 2D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Mariehamn
3
Draws
3
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mariehamn and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, Mariehamn have won 4, Haka have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Mariehamn and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 13 September 2025, when Mariehamn 1-1 Haka.
Who has won more matches between Mariehamn and Haka?
Mariehamn have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mariehamn 50%, Haka 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Mariehamn and 60% for Haka. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Mariehamn have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mariehamn home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mariehamn play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Mariehamn's recent matches and 55% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mariehamn vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Mariehamn's matches and 60% of Haka's.
Do Mariehamn and Haka tend to score early?
Mariehamn have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Haka in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mariehamn and Haka share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Wiklöf Holding Arena, Regular Season - 16, as Mariehamn and Haka drew 1-1 in the Veikkausliiga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mariehamn 1.41 xG and Haka 1.67 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mariehamn attack 0.89 / defence 1.31 against Haka attack 0.88 / defence 1.02, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mariehamn 32% | Draw 26% | Haka 43%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mariehamn 62%, Haka 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mariehamn's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Haka's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mariehamn 1.00 PPG, Haka 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.