KuPS 3-2 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates KuPS at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this KuPS vs Haka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
KuPS host Haka at Vare Areena in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 2 August 2025 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
KuPS — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS at Vare Areena this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Vare Areena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — KuPS are significantly better at Vare Areena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Haka stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Haka have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: KuPS 1.20 PPG, Haka 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, KuPS have won 4, Haka 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 May 2025, ended 3–1 with KuPS winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
KuPS trading profile (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Haka trading profile (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — KuPS 52% versus Haka 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (KuPS 54% | Haka 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects KuPS 1.95 xG and Haka 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: KuPS attack 1.242 / defence 0.810 | Haka attack 0.822 / defence 0.993. League average goals — home 1.579 / away 1.498. Data: 39 KuPS games / 39 Haka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: KuPS 59% | Draw 24% | Haka 18%. Fair-value odds: KuPS 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Haka 5.56. The model has a clear lean to KuPS (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.94. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.94 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates KuPS as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.94 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: KuPS 20% | Haka 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: KuPS vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Vare Areena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Aug 2025, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: KuPS 59% | Draw 24% | Haka 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG KuPS 1.95 / Haka 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: KuPS attack 1.242 / def 0.810 | Haka attack 0.822 / def 0.993 | league avg home 1.579 / away 1.498 • Poisson stance: KuPS (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
KuPS xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Haka xG
55%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does KuPS vs Haka kick off?
KuPS vs Haka kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 August 2025 at Vare Areena.
What was the final score in KuPS vs Haka?
KuPS 3 - 2 Haka.
Where is KuPS vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Vare Areena.
What competition is KuPS vs Haka part of?
KuPS vs Haka is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win KuPS vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives KuPS a 59% chance of winning, Haka a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in KuPS vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both KuPS and Haka will score (BTTS).
Will KuPS vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Haka?
Record (9 meetings): KuPS 4W | Draws 3 | Haka 2W.
What form are KuPS and Haka in?
KuPS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Haka (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
KuPS's attacking strength (1.24x league average) is weighed against Haka's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.95. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus KuPS's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
59%
1.71
24%
4.24
18%
5.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
KuPS xG
Total xG
2.94
1.00
Haka xG
1.71
59%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
5.60
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
14%
7.00
Win to Nil
22%
4.62
3%
39.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.2 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for KuPS vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are KuPS and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for KuPS and 1.00 for Haka, a combined total of 2.94.
How confident is the prediction model for KuPS vs Haka?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, KuPS have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 26W 9D 9L record — L-W-W-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Haka's form line: 15W 9D 20L from 44 games, 1.23 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Haka.
Venue Form
On home soil, KuPS have posted 2.45 PPG from 22 outings (18W 0D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.98 PPG overall — KuPS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Haka have gone 7W 5D 10L from 22 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
KuPS are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.41 scored and 1.73 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
KuPS
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are KuPS and Haka in coming into this match?
KuPS have gone 26W 9D 9L in their last 44 games (1.98 PPG), while Haka have gone 15W 9D 20L in their last 44 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — KuPS at home or Haka away?
KuPS's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — KuPS at home: 2.45 PPG; Haka away: 1.18 PPG.
Have KuPS or Haka been keeping clean sheets recently?
KuPS have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Haka in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 August 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
KuPS go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jun 2023, when KuPS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
KuPS's record when hosting Haka specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
KuPS
3
Draws
2
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between KuPS and Haka?
From 10 meetings on record, KuPS have won 5, Haka have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did KuPS and Haka last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2025, when KuPS 3-2 Haka.
Who has won more matches between KuPS and Haka?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — KuPS 41%, Haka 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (KuPS) and 59% (Haka). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: KuPS keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = KuPS home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when KuPS play Haka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of KuPS's recent matches and 54% of Haka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is KuPS vs Haka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of KuPS's matches and 59% of Haka's.
Do KuPS and Haka tend to score early?
KuPS have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Haka in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as KuPS edge out Haka 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
KuPS beat Haka 3-2 at Vare Areena, Regular Season - 18, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting KuPS 1.95 xG and Haka 1.00 xG, a combined 2.94. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. KuPS beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Haka outscored their 1.00 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of KuPS attack 1.24 / defence 0.81 against Haka attack 0.82 / defence 0.99, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it KuPS 59% | Draw 24% | Haka 18%, with KuPS to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (KuPS 54%, Haka 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
KuPS's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Haka's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, KuPS arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.23. Form held, and they took the win. KuPS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Haka (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.