Ilves 2-1 Kooteepee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Ilves (74%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Ilves face Kooteepee.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Veikkausliiga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Ilves welcome Kooteepee to Tammelan Stadion. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 2 July 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ilves stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Veikkausliiga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Ilves, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ilves at Tammelan Stadion this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tammelan Stadion. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Ilves are significantly better at Tammelan Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Kooteepee — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kooteepee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kooteepee have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Ilves are in the better shape of the two on current Veikkausliiga data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Ilves: 4 wins from 6 previous clashes against 0 for Kooteepee, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 5–0 with Ilves winning.
The historical record gives Ilves a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Ilves in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Kooteepee in-play and half-time data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 67%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ilves 42% versus Kooteepee 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Ilves 75% | Kooteepee 83%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 2.95 xG and Kooteepee 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.197 / defence 0.988 | Kooteepee attack 0.759 / defence 1.553. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.503. Kooteepee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.553 — this is suppressing Ilves's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Ilves games / 12 Kooteepee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ilves 74% | Draw 14% | Kooteepee 11%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 1.35 | Draw 7.14 | Kooteepee 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Ilves (74%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 4.08. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.08 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.95 / 1.13) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ilves at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.08 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 77% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Ilves 50% | Kooteepee 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs Kooteepee | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tammelan Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 2 Jul 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 74% | Draw 14% | Kooteepee 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 64% | xG Ilves 2.95 / Kooteepee 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.197 / def 0.988 | Kooteepee attack 0.759 / def 1.553 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Ilves (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.95
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Kooteepee xG
64%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ilves vs Kooteepee kick off?
Ilves vs Kooteepee kicked off at 16:00 on Wednesday 2 July 2025 at Tammelan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs Kooteepee?
Ilves 2 - 1 Kooteepee.
Where is Ilves vs Kooteepee being played?
The match is being played at Tammelan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs Kooteepee part of?
Ilves vs Kooteepee is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs Kooteepee?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 74% chance of winning, Kooteepee a 11% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Ilves the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs Kooteepee?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Ilves and Kooteepee will score (BTTS).
Will Ilves vs Kooteepee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Kooteepee?
Record (6 meetings): Ilves 4W | Draws 2 | Kooteepee 0W.
What form are Ilves and Kooteepee in?
Ilves (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W. Kooteepee (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ilves's attack rating (1.20) and Kooteepee's defence rating (1.55), the model arrives at 2.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kooteepee's attack versus Ilves's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.3%. Close behind: 3-1 (8.2%), 2-0 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Ilves Win
74%
1.34
14%
7.07
11%
8.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.2%
Home win
2 – 0
7.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.95
Ilves xG
Total xG
4.08
1.13
Kooteepee xG
1.34
74%
Home win
7.07
14%
Draw
8.74
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
39%
Over 4.5
2.56
61%
Under 4.5
1.64
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.78
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
5%
19.16
Win to Nil
24%
4.15
1%
167.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.2 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs Kooteepee?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.3%.
How many goals are Ilves and Kooteepee expected to score?
The model projects 2.95 expected goals for Ilves and 1.13 for Kooteepee, a combined total of 4.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs Kooteepee?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ilves come into this having played 12 games, going 7W 1D 4L for 1.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-W. The sample for Ilves is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kooteepee sit at 0.75 PPG from 12 outings (2W 3D 7L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for Kooteepee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ilves carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.08 PPG clear of Kooteepee — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ilves's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Kooteepee have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ilves come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Ilves are averaging 2.25 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Kooteepee are on 1.08 scored and 2.58 conceded.
Defensively: Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
Kooteepee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ilves and Kooteepee in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 7W 1D 4L in their last 12 games (1.83 PPG), while Kooteepee have gone 2W 3D 7L in their last 12 (0.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or Kooteepee away?
Ilves's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 2.00 PPG; Kooteepee away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Ilves or Kooteepee been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ilves have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Kooteepee in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Ilves and Kooteepee runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 July 2025, some 4 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Ilves have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Apr 2025, when Ilves won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Ilves's record when hosting Kooteepee specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Ilves
2
Draws
0
Kooteepee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Kooteepee?
From 7 meetings on record, Ilves have won 5, Kooteepee have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and Kooteepee last play each other?
They last met on 2 July 2025, when Ilves 2-1 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between Ilves and Kooteepee?
Ilves have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 60%, Kooteepee 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Ilves and 100% for Kooteepee. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ilves keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Kooteepee in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / Kooteepee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ilves play Kooteepee?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Ilves's games and 60% of Kooteepee's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ilves vs Kooteepee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Ilves's matches and 100% of Kooteepee's.
Do Ilves and Kooteepee tend to score early?
Ilves have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Kooteepee in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ilves edge out Kooteepee 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat Kooteepee 2-1 at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 13, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 2.95 xG and Kooteepee 1.13 xG, a combined 4.08. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Ilves fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.20 / defence 0.99 against Kooteepee attack 0.76 / defence 1.55, drawn from 35/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 74% | Draw 14% | Kooteepee 11%, with Ilves to win its most likely call at 74%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 79% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 75%, Kooteepee 83%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Kooteepee's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Ilves arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 0.75. Form held, and they took the win. Kooteepee (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.