Ilves 5-0 Haka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haka at 50% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ilves vs Haka encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Haka travel to Tammelan Stadion to take on Ilves in Veikkausliiga (matchday 7). The game is scheduled for Friday 17 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Ilves have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Ilves's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Haka stand at 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Haka's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Ilves) versus 1.90 (Haka). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Ilves's games and 60% of Haka's (from Ilves's last 10 home games and Haka's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Haka have the better record in our head-to-head data — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches against 0 for Ilves.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 15 Sep 2023, ended Ilves 2–2 Haka — a draw.
The H2H data backs the away side. Haka have won 3 of 5 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
Ilves trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 37%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Haka trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Ilves 59% and Haka 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ilves 56% | Haka 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Ilves surrender their half-time lead 37% of the time, while Haka have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 42% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Haka surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Ilves recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ilves 1.41 xG and Haka 2.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ilves attack 1.114 / defence 1.379 | Haka attack 1.148 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.285. Ilves's defence rating of 1.379 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Haka's projected output up. Data: built from Ilves's last 28 games and Haka's last 28.
Result probabilities: Ilves 24% | Draw 26% | Haka 50%. Fair-value odds: Ilves 4.11 | Draw 3.87 | Haka 2.01. Haka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 3.44. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.44 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (1.41 / 2.04) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haka at 50% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Haka 3 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Haka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.44 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 67% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Ilves's last 10 home games and Haka's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Ilves 70% (last 10 home games) | Haka 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ilves vs Haka | Competition: Veikkausliiga, matchday 7 | Venue: Tammelan Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ilves 24% | Draw 26% | Haka 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% (Under 33%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Ilves 1.41 / Haka 2.04 • Poisson strength factors: Ilves attack 1.114 / def 1.379 | Haka attack 1.148 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.285 • Poisson stance: Haka (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Ilves xG
Expected Goals
2.04
Haka xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ilves vs Haka FAQs
What time does Ilves vs Haka kick off?
Ilves vs Haka kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 17 May 2024 at Tammelan Stadion.
What was the final score in Ilves vs Haka?
Ilves 5 - 0 Haka.
Where is Ilves vs Haka being played?
The match is being played at Tammelan Stadion.
What competition is Ilves vs Haka part of?
Ilves vs Haka is a Veikkausliiga fixture (matchday 7) (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Ilves vs Haka?
Our statistical model gives Ilves a 24% chance of winning, Haka a 50% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ilves vs Haka?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Ilves and Haka will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Ilves vs Haka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Ilves's attack rating (1.11) and Haka's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 1.41 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Haka's attack versus Ilves's defence, projects 2.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Ilves's last 28 games and Haka's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-2 (6.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
24%
4.11
26%
3.87
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
0 – 2
6.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Ilves xG
Total xG
3.44
2.04
Haka xG
4.11
24%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
13%
7.65
24%
4.09
Win to Nil
3%
31.48
12%
8.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.2 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.5 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ilves vs Haka Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ilves vs Haka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Ilves and Haka expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Ilves and 2.04 for Haka, a combined total of 3.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Ilves vs Haka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Ilves come into this having played 54 games, going 17W 16D 21L for 1.24 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-W-W.
On the other side, Haka sit at 1.43 PPG from 54 outings (20W 17D 17L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Ilves on 1.24 PPG, Haka on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Ilves's home form reads 9W 6D 12L across their last 27 home games, a 1.22 PPG return.
Away from home, Haka have taken 1.19 points per game from their last 27 away games (9W 5D 13L).
The Goals Picture
Ilves are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Haka are on 1.39 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka in 61%.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ilves
Blended
Haka
Blended
Ilves (Home) vs Haka (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ilves
Blended
Haka
Blended
❓ Ilves vs Haka Form FAQs
What form are Ilves and Haka in coming into this match?
Ilves have gone 17W 16D 21L in their last 54 games (1.24 PPG), while Haka have gone 20W 17D 17L in their last 54 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ilves at home or Haka away?
Ilves's home record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ilves at home: 1.22 PPG; Haka away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2022. All of them came in Veikkausliiga. The most recent in our data was on 28 June 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Ilves have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 May 2024, when Ilves won Ilves 5-0 Haka.
Ilves's record when hosting Haka specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Ilves
2
Draws
4
Haka
Recent Meetings
❓ Ilves vs Haka H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ilves and Haka?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Ilves have won 4, Haka have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ilves and Haka last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 June 2025: Haka 0-4 Ilves.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Ilves are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ilves 67%, Haka 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Ilves) and 59% (Haka). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haka in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ilves home games / Haka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ilves vs Haka Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ilves and Haka matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Ilves's games and 48% of Haka's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Ilves and Haka matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Ilves's matches and 59% of Haka's.
Do Ilves and Haka matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Ilves's recent matches and 85% of Haka's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Ilves run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Haka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ilves beat Haka 5-0 at Tammelan Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ilves 1.41 xG and Haka 2.04 xG, a combined 3.44. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Ilves beat their projection by 3.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Haka landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ilves attack 1.11 / defence 1.38 against Haka attack 1.15 / defence 0.84, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ilves 24% | Draw 26% | Haka 50%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Ilves win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ilves 56%, Haka 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ilves's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Haka's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ilves 1.24 PPG, Haka 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ilves win broke the near-deadlock. Ilves (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line. Haka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.