AC Oulu 1-1 Mariehamn – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AC Oulu at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this AC Oulu vs Mariehamn fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and Mariehamn meet at Raatin stadion in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AC Oulu have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Raatin stadion, AC Oulu have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — AC Oulu are significantly better at Raatin stadion than their overall form suggests.
Mariehamn (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Mariehamn's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for AC Oulu, 1.10 for Mariehamn — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for AC Oulu, 0 for Mariehamn and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2023, ended 3–2 with AC Oulu winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
AC Oulu — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Mariehamn — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — AC Oulu 62% and Mariehamn 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 66% | Mariehamn 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 1.56 xG and Mariehamn 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.848 / defence 1.000 | Mariehamn attack 0.864 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.269. Mariehamn bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing AC Oulu's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 AC Oulu games / 28 Mariehamn games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 46% | Draw 30% | Mariehamn 24%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 2.17 | Draw 3.33 | Mariehamn 4.17. AC Oulu hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AC Oulu are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AC Oulu if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: AC Oulu 70% | Mariehamn 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs Mariehamn | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Raatin stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 46% | Draw 30% | Mariehamn 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG AC Oulu 1.56 / Mariehamn 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.848 / def 1.000 | Mariehamn attack 0.864 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: AC Oulu (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Mariehamn xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs Mariehamn kick off?
AC Oulu vs Mariehamn kicked off at 16:00 on Friday 17 May 2024 at Raatin stadion.
What was the final score in AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
AC Oulu 1 - 1 Mariehamn.
Where is AC Oulu vs Mariehamn being played?
The match is being played at Raatin stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs Mariehamn part of?
AC Oulu vs Mariehamn is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 46% chance of winning, Mariehamn a 24% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AC Oulu the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both AC Oulu and Mariehamn will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs Mariehamn have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Mariehamn?
Record (2 meetings): AC Oulu 2W | Draws 0 | Mariehamn 0W.
What form are AC Oulu and Mariehamn in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Mariehamn (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 0.85x the league average against Mariehamn's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mariehamn's attack (0.86x) against AC Oulu's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AC Oulu Win
46%
2.18
30%
3.34
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.66
1.10
Mariehamn xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
15%
6.54
5%
19.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.0 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and Mariehamn expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.10 for Mariehamn, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs Mariehamn?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, AC Oulu have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 24W 11D 21L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five.
Mariehamn's form line: 15W 15D 26L from 56 games, 1.07 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W.
Put side by side, AC Oulu are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Mariehamn.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AC Oulu have posted 1.61 PPG from 28 outings (13W 6D 9L).
On the road, Mariehamn have gone 7W 6D 15L from 28 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AC Oulu come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AC Oulu are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Mariehamn are on 1.29 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AC Oulu have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Current Season
Mariehamn
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and Mariehamn in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 24W 11D 21L in their last 56 games (1.48 PPG), while Mariehamn have gone 15W 15D 26L in their last 56 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or Mariehamn away?
AC Oulu's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.61 PPG; Mariehamn away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. The two were last together as recently as 25 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Mariehamn — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
AC Oulu
2
Draws
4
Mariehamn
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and Mariehamn?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 4, Mariehamn have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and Mariehamn last play each other?
They last met on 25 July 2026, when Mariehamn 1-1 AC Oulu.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AC Oulu are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Mariehamn are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 54%, Mariehamn 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (AC Oulu) and 50% (Mariehamn).
On the defensive side: AC Oulu have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / Mariehamn away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play Mariehamn?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of AC Oulu's games and 61% of Mariehamn's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is AC Oulu vs Mariehamn usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of AC Oulu's recent games and 50% of Mariehamn's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and Mariehamn tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Mariehamn in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AC Oulu and Mariehamn share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AC Oulu and Mariehamn finished level at 1-1 at Raatin stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Veikkausliiga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AC Oulu 1.56 xG and Mariehamn 1.10 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AC Oulu attack 0.85 / defence 1.00 against Mariehamn attack 0.86 / defence 1.22, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AC Oulu 46% | Draw 30% | Mariehamn 24%, with AC Oulu to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AC Oulu 66%, Mariehamn 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AC Oulu's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Mariehamn's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AC Oulu arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.