Haka 2-3 Kooteepee – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Haka at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Haka vs Kooteepee encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Kooteepee make the trip to Tehtaan kenttä to face Haka in Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 July 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Haka have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Haka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Haka's home record at Tehtaan kenttä: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Veikkausliiga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Kooteepee (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kooteepee, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Kooteepee have gone 1W 0D 6L from 7 away fixtures this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Haka against 0.70 for Kooteepee. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Haka have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Kooteepee in 71%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Haka, who have won 4 of the last 7 meetings against Kooteepee — a 2D 1W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Haka and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Haka goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Kooteepee goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 62%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Haka 62% and Kooteepee 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Haka 56% | Kooteepee 81%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Haka 1.79 xG and Kooteepee 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Haka attack 0.756 / defence 1.147 | Kooteepee attack 0.809 / defence 1.518. League average goals — home 1.561 / away 1.447. Haka's attack strength of 0.756 is below the league average — the 1.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kooteepee bring a strong defensive rating of 1.518 — this is suppressing Haka's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Haka games / 16 Kooteepee games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Haka 47% | Draw 25% | Kooteepee 28%. Fair-value odds: Haka 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Kooteepee 3.57. Haka hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Haka at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Haka if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Haka 60% | Kooteepee 71% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Haka vs Kooteepee | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Tehtaan kenttä • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Jul 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Haka 47% | Draw 25% | Kooteepee 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Haka 1.79 / Kooteepee 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Haka attack 0.756 / def 1.147 | Kooteepee attack 0.809 / def 1.518 | league avg home 1.561 / away 1.447 • Poisson stance: Haka (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Haka xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Kooteepee xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Haka vs Kooteepee kick off?
Haka vs Kooteepee kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 26 July 2025 at Tehtaan kenttä.
What was the final score in Haka vs Kooteepee?
Haka 2 - 3 Kooteepee.
Where is Haka vs Kooteepee being played?
The match is being played at Tehtaan kenttä.
What competition is Haka vs Kooteepee part of?
Haka vs Kooteepee is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win Haka vs Kooteepee?
Our statistical model gives Haka a 47% chance of winning, Kooteepee a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Haka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Haka vs Kooteepee?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Haka and Kooteepee will score (BTTS).
Will Haka vs Kooteepee have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Kooteepee?
Record (7 meetings): Haka 4W | Draws 2 | Kooteepee 1W.
What form are Haka and Kooteepee in?
Haka (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Kooteepee (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Haka's attack rating (0.76) and Kooteepee's defence rating (1.52), the model arrives at 1.79 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Kooteepee's attack (0.81x) against Haka's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 38/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Haka Win
47%
2.13
25%
3.92
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Haka xG
Total xG
3.13
1.34
Kooteepee xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
12%
8.17
5%
21.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 10.5 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Haka vs Kooteepee?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Haka and Kooteepee expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Haka and 1.34 for Kooteepee, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Haka vs Kooteepee?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Haka come into this having played 16 games, going 4W 4D 8L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Haka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Kooteepee sit at 0.69 PPG from 16 outings (2W 5D 9L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Kooteepee is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Haka against 0.69 for Kooteepee. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Haka's home form reads 2W 0D 5L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Kooteepee have taken 0.43 points per game from 7 outings (1W 0D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Haka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Haka are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Kooteepee are on 1.12 scored and 2.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Haka have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Kooteepee in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Haka
Blended
Kooteepee
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Haka and Kooteepee in coming into this match?
Haka have gone 4W 4D 8L in their last 16 games (1.00 PPG), while Kooteepee have gone 2W 5D 9L in their last 16 (0.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Haka at home or Kooteepee away?
Haka's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Haka at home: 0.86 PPG; Kooteepee away: 0.43 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 18 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Kooteepee have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kooteepee won 0-3 on 14 May 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Haka have gone 2W 0D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Kooteepee — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Haka
2
Draws
3
Kooteepee
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Haka and Kooteepee?
From 9 meetings on record, Haka have won 4, Kooteepee have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Haka and Kooteepee last play each other?
They last met on 18 October 2025, when Haka 1-2 Kooteepee.
Who has won more matches between Haka and Kooteepee?
Haka have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Haka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Kooteepee are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Haka 43%, Kooteepee 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Haka and 100% for Kooteepee. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Haka have failed to score in 57% of games; Kooteepee in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Haka home games / Kooteepee away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Haka play Kooteepee?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Haka's games and 71% of Kooteepee's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Haka vs Kooteepee usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Haka's matches and 100% of Kooteepee's.
Do Haka and Kooteepee tend to score early?
Haka have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Kooteepee in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Kooteepee defy the odds to beat Haka 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kooteepee beat Haka 2-3 at Tehtaan kenttä, Regular Season - 17, in the Veikkausliiga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Haka 1.79 xG and Kooteepee 1.34 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Kooteepee outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Haka attack 0.76 / defence 1.15 against Kooteepee attack 0.81 / defence 1.52, drawn from 38/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Haka 47% | Draw 25% | Kooteepee 28%, with Haka to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Kooteepee win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Haka 56%, Kooteepee 81%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Haka's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Kooteepee's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Haka 1.00 PPG, Kooteepee 0.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kooteepee win broke the near-deadlock. Haka (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kooteepee (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.