AC Oulu vs KuPS – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours KuPS (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AC Oulu face KuPS.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AC Oulu and KuPS meet at OTC Stadion in Veikkausliiga, Championship Group - 31. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 1 November 2026 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
AC Oulu's overall Veikkausliiga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AC Oulu, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AC Oulu's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at OTC Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — AC Oulu are significantly better at OTC Stadion than their overall form suggests.
KuPS (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Veikkausliiga outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for KuPS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
KuPS's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Veikkausliiga this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
On a straight form reading, KuPS are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
KuPS hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 7 wins from 10 meetings. The hosts have won just 2 times in that span.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2026, ended 2–0 with AC Oulu winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. KuPS have won 7 of 10 previous encounters, and at 2.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
AC Oulu — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
KuPS — key trading statistics (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Oulu 50% versus KuPS 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Oulu 52% | KuPS 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Oulu 0.79 xG and KuPS 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Oulu attack 0.790 / defence 0.902 | KuPS attack 1.152 / defence 0.724. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.167. AC Oulu's attack strength of 0.790 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. KuPS's defence strength of 0.724 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 AC Oulu games / 44 KuPS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AC Oulu 24% | Draw 30% | KuPS 46%. Fair-value odds: AC Oulu 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | KuPS 2.17. KuPS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is KuPS at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on KuPS if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.00 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AC Oulu 40% | KuPS 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Oulu vs KuPS | Competition: Veikkausliiga, Championship Group - 31 | Venue: OTC Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Oulu 24% | Draw 30% | KuPS 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG AC Oulu 0.79 / KuPS 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: AC Oulu attack 0.790 / def 0.902 | KuPS attack 1.152 / def 0.724 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: KuPS (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
AC Oulu xG
Expected Goals
1.21
KuPS xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Oulu vs KuPS kick off?
AC Oulu vs KuPS is scheduled to kick off at 13:00 on Sunday 1 November 2026 at OTC Stadion.
Where is AC Oulu vs KuPS being played?
The match is being played at OTC Stadion.
What competition is AC Oulu vs KuPS part of?
AC Oulu vs KuPS is a Championship Group - 31 fixture in the Veikkausliiga (Finland).
Who is favourite to win AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Our statistical model gives AC Oulu a 24% chance of winning, KuPS a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making KuPS the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both AC Oulu and KuPS will score (BTTS).
Will AC Oulu vs KuPS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and KuPS?
Record (10 meetings): AC Oulu 2W | Draws 1 | KuPS 7W.
What form are AC Oulu and KuPS in?
AC Oulu (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. KuPS (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates AC Oulu's attack at 0.79x the league average against KuPS's defence at 0.72x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — KuPS's attack (1.15x) against AC Oulu's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.8%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
KuPS Win
24%
4.18
30%
3.34
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
AC Oulu xG
Total xG
2.00
1.21
KuPS xG
4.18
24%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
46%
2.19
Win to Nil
7%
14.05
21%
4.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 16.4 | 10.0 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are AC Oulu and KuPS expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for AC Oulu and 1.21 for KuPS, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Oulu vs KuPS?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 50 outings, AC Oulu have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 18W 7D 25L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for AC Oulu is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
KuPS's form line: 28W 14D 8L from 50 games, 1.96 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-D. The sample for KuPS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, KuPS are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AC Oulu.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, AC Oulu have posted 1.42 PPG from 24 outings (10W 4D 10L).
On the road, KuPS have gone 12W 9D 3L from 24 away games — 1.88 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, KuPS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AC Oulu are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; KuPS are on 1.84 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Veikkausliiga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Oulu
Blended
KuPS
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Oulu and KuPS in coming into this match?
AC Oulu have gone 18W 7D 25L in their last 50 games (1.22 PPG), while KuPS have gone 28W 14D 8L in their last 50 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Oulu at home or KuPS away?
KuPS's away record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Oulu at home: 1.42 PPG; KuPS away: 1.88 PPG.
Have AC Oulu or KuPS been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Oulu have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, KuPS in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Veikkausliiga. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: KuPS won 0-3 on 17 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Oulu have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against KuPS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AC Oulu
1
Draws
7
KuPS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Oulu and KuPS?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Oulu have won 2, KuPS have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AC Oulu and KuPS last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when AC Oulu 2-0 KuPS.
Who has won more matches between AC Oulu and KuPS?
KuPS have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AC Oulu see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
KuPS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Oulu 46%, KuPS 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AC Oulu) and 33% (KuPS).
On the defensive side: KuPS in 38%; AC Oulu have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Oulu home games / KuPS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Oulu play KuPS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of AC Oulu's recent matches and 50% of KuPS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Oulu vs KuPS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of AC Oulu's recent games and 33% of KuPS's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Oulu and KuPS tend to score early?
AC Oulu have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, KuPS in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.