Tottenham 1-1 Fulham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Tottenham at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Tottenham vs Fulham encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Tottenham host Fulham at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in Premier League, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Tottenham stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Tottenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Tottenham have gone 6W 0D 4L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fulham — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fulham have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Tottenham 1.50 PPG, Fulham 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Tottenham, 1 for Fulham and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 0–3 with Fulham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Tottenham in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 84% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Fulham in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Tottenham 68% and Fulham 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Tottenham 78% | Fulham 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 1.82 xG and Fulham 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 1.339 / defence 0.944 | Fulham attack 0.993 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.513 / away 1.449. Tottenham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.339 — their λ of 1.82 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 50 Tottenham games / 50 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tottenham 47% | Draw 26% | Fulham 27%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Fulham 3.70. Tottenham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.82 / 1.36) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tottenham are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tottenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.18 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Tottenham 70% | Fulham 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tottenham vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tottenham 47% | Draw 26% | Fulham 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Tottenham 1.82 / Fulham 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Tottenham attack 1.339 / def 0.944 | Fulham attack 0.993 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.513 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.82
Tottenham xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Fulham xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tottenham vs Fulham kick off?
Tottenham vs Fulham kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What was the final score in Tottenham vs Fulham?
Tottenham 1 - 1 Fulham.
Where is Tottenham vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What competition is Tottenham vs Fulham part of?
Tottenham vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives Tottenham a 47% chance of winning, Fulham a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Tottenham and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will Tottenham vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Fulham?
Record (4 meetings): Tottenham 3W | Draws 0 | Fulham 1W.
What form are Tottenham and Fulham in?
Tottenham (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Fulham (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Tottenham vs Fulham?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Tottenham's attacking strength (1.34x league average) is weighed against Fulham's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.82. The same calculation in reverse, Fulham's attack versus Tottenham's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
47%
2.15
26%
3.80
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.82
Tottenham xG
Total xG
3.18
1.36
Fulham xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
26%
3.89
16%
6.15
Win to Nil
12%
8.35
4%
22.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 7.0 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Tottenham and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Tottenham and 1.36 for Fulham, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs Fulham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tottenham come into this having played 50 games, going 26W 7D 17L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-L-W. The sample for Tottenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Fulham sit at 1.30 PPG from 50 outings (18W 11D 21L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tottenham on 1.70 PPG, Fulham on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Tottenham's home form reads 17W 0D 8L across 25 games on their own ground, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Fulham have taken 1.04 points per game from 25 outings (6W 8D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tottenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Tottenham are averaging 2.02 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.44 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Tottenham have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 50 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tottenham
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tottenham and Fulham in coming into this match?
Tottenham have gone 26W 7D 17L in their last 50 games (1.70 PPG), while Fulham have gone 18W 11D 21L in their last 50 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tottenham at home or Fulham away?
Tottenham's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tottenham at home: 2.04 PPG; Fulham away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tottenham and Fulham runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fulham go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2024, when Fulham won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tottenham's record when hosting Fulham specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Tottenham
1
Draws
4
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, Tottenham have won 3, Fulham have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Tottenham and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Fulham 2-1 Tottenham.
Who has won more matches between Tottenham and Fulham?
Fulham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Tottenham at 80%, Fulham at 56%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 84% for Tottenham and 52% for Fulham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fulham in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tottenham home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tottenham play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Tottenham's games and 56% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Tottenham vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 84% of Tottenham's matches and 52% of Fulham's.
Tottenham and Fulham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tottenham and Fulham finished level at 1-1 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.82 xG and Fulham 1.36 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Tottenham fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 1.34 / defence 0.94 against Fulham attack 0.99 / defence 0.90, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tottenham 47% | Draw 26% | Fulham 27%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 78%, Fulham 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tottenham's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Fulham's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tottenham 1.70 PPG, Fulham 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.16 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.