Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nottingham Forest at 34%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Nottingham Forest host Sunderland at City Ground in Premier League, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 24 April 2027 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nottingham Forest stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Nottingham Forest have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Nottingham Forest at City Ground this season: 1W 7D 2L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game.
Sunderland — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sunderland have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sunderland away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Nottingham Forest 1.40 PPG, Sunderland 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Nottingham Forest, 1 for Sunderland and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 5–0 with Nottingham Forest winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Nottingham Forest in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Sunderland in-play and half-time data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 46% versus Sunderland 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 51% | Sunderland 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.03 xG and Sunderland 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.689 / defence 0.844 | Sunderland attack 0.982 / defence 1.019. League average goals — home 1.467 / away 1.203. Nottingham Forest's attack strength of 0.689 is below the league average — the 1.03 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 41 Nottingham Forest games / 41 Sunderland games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 34% | Draw 34% | Sunderland 32%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 2.94 | Draw 2.94 | Sunderland 3.12. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. This conflicts with form data: Nottingham Forest 50% | Sunderland 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: City Ground • Kick-off: Saturday 24 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 34% | Draw 34% | Sunderland 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 42% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.03 / Sunderland 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.689 / def 0.844 | Sunderland attack 0.982 / def 1.019 | league avg home 1.467 / away 1.203 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Sunderland xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 24 April 2027 at City Ground.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland part of?
Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 34% chance of winning, Sunderland a 32% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Nottingham Forest and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Sunderland?
Record (2 meetings): Nottingham Forest 1W | Draws 0 | Sunderland 1W.
What form are Nottingham Forest and Sunderland in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Sunderland (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nottingham Forest's attacking strength (0.69x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. The same calculation in reverse, Sunderland's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nottingham Forest Win
34%
2.95
34%
2.96
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.03
1.00
Sunderland xG
2.95
34%
Home win
2.96
34%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
37%
2.71
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
13%
8.00
12%
8.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 13.1 | 6.6 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.00 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nottingham Forest's recent record stands at 11W 13D 17L from 41 games, a 1.12 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 13L across 41 games — 1.41 PPG, with W-W-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sunderland, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nottingham Forest on 1.12 PPG, Sunderland on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nottingham Forest have managed 4W 9D 8L from 21 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sunderland's away record stands at 5W 7D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.10 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Early Season
Sunderland
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 11W 13D 17L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 15W 13D 13L in their last 41 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or Sunderland away?
Sunderland's away record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 1.00 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.05 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nottingham Forest and Sunderland runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nottingham Forest
0
Draws
1
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and Sunderland?
From 2 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 1, Sunderland have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Sunderland 0-5 Nottingham Forest.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nottingham Forest see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 43%, Sunderland 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Nottingham Forest) and 43% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest have failed to score in 52% of games; Sunderland in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play Sunderland?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 52% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Nottingham Forest's recent games and 43% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nottingham Forest and Sunderland tend to score early?
Nottingham Forest have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.